Can Maths Predict the Future? - Hannah Fry at Ada Lovelace Day 2014

Recent questions

• What is Benford's Law?

  Benford's Law is a statistical principle that describes the frequency distribution of leading digits in many real-life sets of numerical data. According to this law, the number 1 appears as the leading digit about 30% of the time, while larger digits occur less frequently, with 9 being the least common leading digit. This phenomenon can be observed in various datasets, including financial records, population numbers, and even social media statistics. The law suggests that in many naturally occurring collections of numbers, the distribution of first digits is not uniform, which can be useful for detecting anomalies or fraud in data analysis.

• How can math predict future events?

  Mathematics can help predict future events by identifying patterns and trends within data. By analyzing historical data and applying statistical models, mathematicians can make educated guesses about what might happen next. For instance, in the context of social media, analyzing follower counts can reveal trends that suggest future growth or decline. However, it is important to note that while math can provide insights and probabilities, it cannot guarantee accurate predictions due to the inherent randomness and complexity of real-world events. Thus, mathematical predictions are often framed as probabilities rather than certainties.

• What is repeat victimization in crime?

  Repeat victimization refers to the phenomenon where individuals or locations that have previously experienced a crime are more likely to be targeted again in the future. This pattern is observed in various types of crime, including burglaries, where certain neighborhoods or properties may become hotspots for repeated offenses. The underlying reasons for this trend can include factors such as lack of security measures, familiarity of the offender with the area, or the perceived vulnerability of the victim. Understanding repeat victimization can help law enforcement agencies develop targeted strategies to prevent future crimes in these areas.

• How do police use data to reduce crime?

  Police departments utilize data analysis to identify crime patterns and hotspots, which can significantly enhance their crime prevention strategies. By employing statistical tools and software, such as an iPad app developed by mathematicians, law enforcement can analyze historical crime data to predict where future crimes are likely to occur. This proactive approach allows police to allocate resources more effectively, increasing patrols in high-risk areas and implementing community safety measures. As a result, some jurisdictions have reported reductions in crime rates by up to 19%, demonstrating the effectiveness of data-driven policing strategies.

• What are random numbers used for?

  Random numbers are utilized in various fields for a multitude of purposes, including statistical sampling, cryptography, and simulations. In research and experiments, random numbers help ensure that samples are unbiased and representative of a larger population, which is crucial for the validity of results. In the context of predicting outcomes, such as in the speaker's presentation, random numbers can be used to create diverse datasets that reflect real-world variability. This randomness is essential for conducting experiments that aim to uncover patterns or trends, as it minimizes the influence of external factors and allows for more accurate analysis.