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Clutching at Random Straws, Matt Parker | LMS Popular Lectures 2010

London Mathematical Society・54 minutes read

Matt Parker, a mathematician at Queen Mary University, humorously discusses math concepts and the likelihood of shared birthdays, emphasizing the importance of probability and patterns in everyday life. He highlights the human tendency to see patterns where there may be none, the significance of using math to overcome biases, and the need to combat pseudo-science through education and critical thinking.

Insights

  • Matt Parker, a math communicator, humorously engages audiences to spark enthusiasm for math through entertaining media work and live demonstrations, showcasing the emergence of patterns with random data, as seen in the "birthday problem" and card shuffling probabilities.
  • The discussion emphasizes the human inclination to spot patterns, the importance of using math and science to counter biases, and the need for experts to combat pseudo-science, highlighting the significance of probability in understanding likelihood and making informed decisions.

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Recent questions

  • How does Matt Parker engage with math?

    Through humor and media work.

  • What is the "birthday problem" discussed by Matt Parker?

    Probability of shared birthdays in a room.

  • How does Matt Parker illustrate the concept of patterns emerging from random data?

    Using equilateral triangles and shared birthdays.

  • What is the importance of using math and science to overcome human biases?

    To spot patterns and make significant findings.

  • How does Matt Parker address the issue of pseudo-science in mathematics?

    By advocating for education and speaking out.

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Summary

00:00

"Math Entertainer Matt Parker Shares Insights"

  • Speaker is Matt Parker, based at Queen Mary University of London, with an email address provided for questions.
  • He humorously mentions his commitment to standing up and discussing math, with a promise of entertainment.
  • Parker shares his background, starting with mechanical engineering before transitioning to physics and then math.
  • He worked as a math teacher in Australia and London before moving to support education.
  • Currently, he works at Queen Mary University, assisting academics and students in communicating math effectively.
  • Parker engages in media work, writing about math to spark enthusiasm in others.
  • He conducts an informal survey to gauge the audience's interest in math.
  • Parker recounts a humorous incident involving ancient sites forming precise triangles, leading him to discover similar patterns with Woolworth stores.
  • He explains how with enough data, patterns can be found even if they lack significance, illustrating this with equilateral triangles.
  • Parker uses the concept of equilateral triangles to demonstrate how patterns can emerge with sufficient random data, likening it to the likelihood of shared birthdays in a room of people.

15:11

"Unlikely to Likely: Shared Birthday Probability"

  • Sending 366 people ensures that there could potentially be one person in every seat, with an incredibly unlikely chance of it happening.
  • The 367th person must sit in a seat with someone else already there, leading to the possibility of three people sharing a birthday when 365 people are added.
  • With enough people in a room, it becomes inevitable that there will be a common birthday.
  • The "birthday problem" explores the point where it transitions from unlikely to likely for two people to share a birthday.
  • A party scenario is used to explain the probability of people sharing birthdays, with calculations based on different birthdays for each person.
  • By the time 23 people are in a room, there is a better than 50% chance of a shared birthday, reaching 70% with 30 people.
  • A live demonstration with audience participation showcases the exponential increase in the likelihood of shared birthdays as more people are added.
  • The concept highlights counterintuitive probability, where selective data interpretation and underestimation of likelihood play a role.
  • Graphs illustrate the sharp rise in the probability of shared birthdays as more people are present, offering a strategy for winning bets based on this probability.
  • The example extends to card shuffling, demonstrating how a magician could seemingly control the outcome to win bets, emphasizing the role of probability in long-term outcomes.

30:15

"Probability, Patterns, and Human Biases in Math"

  • The trick involves getting the King and Queen cards to end up next to each other or at most one card apart.
  • The probability of the King and Queen cards being next to each other is about 48%, while being one card apart is over 67.2%.
  • The likelihood of such card arrangements is higher than expected due to the number of opportunities for it to occur.
  • A real-life example is shared where a couple discovered a childhood photo where they were accidentally photographed together before they even met.
  • Unlikely events, like the couple's photo coincidence, can still happen due to the sheer number of opportunities for them to occur.
  • Humans are inclined to see patterns, which is why we enjoy mathematics and spotting patterns.
  • An example of back masking in music is used to demonstrate how suggestion can make people hear specific words when played backward.
  • People tend to spot patterns even where there may not be any, as shown through a demonstration with a song played backward.
  • The importance of using math and science to overcome human biases in spotting patterns and making significant findings is emphasized.
  • The concept of the null hypothesis is explained, where assumptions are made to determine the likelihood of outcomes, such as in taste tests between two products.

47:49

"Science, Probability, and Predictive Patterns"

  • Probability under 5% indicates a significant finding, over 5% requires more work or studies.
  • Randomly selecting locations in the UK to form triangles and publishing without peer review is problematic.
  • Mathematicians and scientists must speak up against pseudo-science to educate the public.
  • Specialism fallacy in science hinders experts from speaking out on broader topics.
  • The Bible Code involves finding hidden words in the Bible by skipping letters.
  • The predictive power of finding patterns increases with more data available.
  • Evolutionary advantage leads humans to overestimate risks for safety.
  • The Windings font in Microsoft Word unintentionally depicted the 9/11 tragedy.
  • Data mining in supermarkets and online platforms can lead to accurate predictions.
  • Playing the lottery with sequential numbers like 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 is not advisable due to common number choices.
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