What is the current state of US-China relations?

The relationship has shifted from cooperation to strategic competition.

How do Southeast Asian countries view China's rise?

Many countries trade with China but seek US security assistance.

Strategic mistrust, unclear goals, and global concerns.

Major powers pursue their interests with caution.

Through subtlety, complexity, and historical wisdom.

The US-China relationship has shifted from cooperation to strategic rivalry due to China's rise as a global power, leading to concerns about the end game of this competition and the unclear strategic goals of the US.
Southeast Asian countries, with a rich history of managing relationships with China, navigate geopolitics peacefully by balancing relationships with major powers like the US and China, highlighting the importance of subtlety and complexity in avoiding conflicts and emphasizing the need for long-term trend analysis in evolving global relationships.

What is the current state of US-China relations?
The relationship has shifted from cooperation to strategic competition.
How do Southeast Asian countries view China's rise?
Many countries trade with China but seek US security assistance.
What are the key challenges in US-China relations?
Strategic mistrust, unclear goals, and global concerns.
How do major powers engage with China?
Major powers pursue their interests with caution.
How do Southeast Asian countries manage China's influence?
Through subtlety, complexity, and historical wisdom.

00:00

The speaker, RI Daniels, is moderating a discussion on US-China rivalry and the future of the global order.
Over the past 25 years, the US-China relationship has evolved due to changes in both countries, including China's entry into the WTO and the rapid pace of globalization.
The balance of power in Asia has shifted, leading to new opportunities and challenges driven by economic integration and technological advancements.
The relationship between the US and China has transitioned from cooperation under previous administrations to strategic competition and rivalry.
The 21st century is termed the Asian Century due to the economic power shift to Asia, moving towards a bipolar world with multiple emerging powers.
The cultural landscape is also changing, with a resurgence of non-Western civilizations challenging Western dominance.
The US is engaging in strategic competition with China to prevent its overtaking, a common behavior among dominant powers.
The strategic goals of the US in this competition are unclear, leading to global concerns and questions about the end game.
China's rise as a great power is seen as a natural return to its historical status by many countries in the global South.
While countries trade extensively with China, they also seek security assistance from the US, indicating concerns about China's behavior as it rises as a global power.

17:56

The speaker closely monitors the Philippines as a significant scale in Southeast Asia, noting potential challenges in remaining neutral.
Observations on the internal political shift in China towards a more Marxist mode prompt discussion on global attitudes towards China's hegemony.
Emphasis on global goodwill towards both the United States and China, highlighting the preference for a balance between the two powers.
The speaker stresses the principle of non-interference in internal affairs, citing the UN Charter's significance in international relations.
Historical context is provided, questioning past alliances with China and the pragmatic approach to geopolitics.
Concerns arise regarding China's expanding influence and potential destabilizing effects in Southeast Asia, prompting a discussion on the region's discomfort with China's behavior.
The speaker asserts that all great powers pursue their interests, cautioning against expecting benevolence from major nations.
Southeast Asia's ability to navigate geopolitics peacefully is highlighted, with a diverse population and successful conflict avoidance strategies.
The discussion shifts to China's bilateral issues with various countries, particularly in the South China Sea, emphasizing the complexity of regional disputes.
The importance of considering long-term trends and the evolving relationships of countries like the Philippines with major powers is underscored.

36:44

Southeast Asian countries have long wisdom in managing China, with Vietnam having a 2,000-year history with China.
Vietnamese leadership requires standing up to and getting along with China.
Indonesia, with 260 million people, manages China while being a good friend of the United States.
The Asian approach to subtlety and complexity in managing relationships prevents wars.
The ideal world of engagement, accepting each other, trading, and getting along, was effective.
President Bush's engagement efforts with China post-Beijing Massacre were significant.
Xi Jinping's actions have tragically ended engagement between the US and China.
China's rise as a great power is unstoppable, driven by its 1.4 billion people.
The strategic mistrust between the US and China is a global concern.
The hope is for the US and China to find ways to manage differences without destabilizing the world.

55:23

50% of individuals experiencing a stagnation in their standard of living for 30 years may not vote for Donald Trump if their standard of living improves, offering hope.
A desire for a strong, happy United States is shared globally, with emphasis on electing a content president.
Orville refrains from commenting on Trump, highlighting uncertainty about his potential presidency.
Taiwan's situation is compared to historical events, suggesting a hands-off approach for 100 years, as advised by Mao Zedong.
Concerns about potential Chinese actions towards Taiwan are raised, hinting at possible challenges ahead.
Suggestions to live harmoniously with China are countered with historical examples where such approaches failed, like in Ukraine.
Diplomatic incidents, like a fishing boat incident, are cited as examples of successful containment through smart diplomacy.
Questions about China's military presence in West Africa, Xi Jinping's leadership stability, and global challenges like climate change and species destruction are discussed, emphasizing the need for cooperation and wise decision-making.