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The A.I. Dilemma - March 9, 2023

Center for Humane Technology・62 minutes read

AI researchers believe human extinction due to AI is a real possibility, as large language models like Golems are rapidly evolving, raising concerns about their impact on society and the need for regulation and safety measures. The exponential growth of AI technology poses challenges in predicting progress accurately and requires a cautious approach to deployment to prevent potential dangers and ensure ethical implications are addressed.

Insights

50% of AI researchers see a 10% or higher chance of human extinction due to AI, showcasing the significant concerns and potential risks associated with the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence technology.
The integration of various fields into AI development, exemplified by the creation of large language models like Transformers, leads to exponential growth and the emergence of generative models known as golems, revolutionizing the decoding and synthesis of data types and posing challenges in predicting progress accurately.

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Recent questions

What is the impact of AI on society?
AI technology reshapes society, affecting identity, journalism, security, and politics.
How does AI technology evolve?
AI technology has merged fields, leading to large language models like Transformers.
What are the concerns surrounding AI deployment?
Concerns arise about responsible deployment, control, and unforeseen consequences.
How does AI influence decision-making processes?
AI may shift power dynamics towards those with greater compute power.
What are the implications of AI advancements?
AI advancements require anticipation of ethical and societal implications.

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Summary

00:00

"AI's Impact on Society: Anticipate and Regulate"

50% of AI researchers believe there's a 10% or greater chance of human extinction due to AI.
Tristan Harris and ASA Raskin, co-founders of the Center for Humane Technology, were behind the Emmy-winning Netflix documentary "The Social Dilemma."
The documentary reached 100 million people in 190 countries and advised global policymakers and national security leaders.
AI technology has reached a threshold where it evokes strong emotions and challenges understanding.
The exponential growth of AI technology requires a more visceral understanding of its impact.
Despite positive aspects of AI, concerns arise about responsible deployment and control.
The analogy of the Manhattan Project highlights the potential dangers of AI deployment.
New technologies uncover new responsibilities, leading to unforeseen consequences like addiction and disinformation.
The engagement economy driven by AI has reshaped society, affecting identity, journalism, national security, and politics.
The presentation aims to address the potential entanglement of AI in society and the need to anticipate and regulate its impact.

15:03

"AI Integration Transforms Reality and Society"

Prior to 2017, various fields like Robotics and image recognition operated independently, with distinct methods, textbooks, and buildings.
In 2017, these fields began merging into one, leading to the development of large language models.
The model known as Transformers, created with around 200 lines of code, treats everything as language, enabling the prediction of missing parts or what comes next in various data types like text, images, sound, fmri data, and DNA.
This synthesis of fields allows for exponential growth and contributions from all areas, leading to the emergence of generative models known as golems.
Examples include translating language into images, reconstructing images from fmri data, and decoding dreams and inner monologues using AI.
The integration of different languages, such as Wi-Fi radio signals and computer code, showcases the potential for AI to exploit vulnerabilities and create deep fakes.
Deep fakes, like voice synthesis and image manipulation, pose significant challenges to content-based verification and societal security.
The exponential growth of AI, particularly through large language models, is transforming reality by decoding and synthesizing various data types.
The impact of AI on language and narrative creation is compared to the significance of nukes in the physical world, potentially altering the operating system of humanity.
The future of elections and power dynamics may shift towards those with greater compute power, blurring the lines between human and AI influence in decision-making processes.

29:21

AI's Rapid Evolution: Challenges and Opportunities

Campaigns are utilizing A/B testing with AI writing messages and creating synthetic media.
AI is creating bots that build long-term relationships to persuade individuals.
Loneliness is identified as a significant national security threat.
Golem AIS are a new class of generative large language model AIS with capabilities not fully understood.
Models like GPT and Google's model increase in parameter size to gain new abilities unpredictably.
AI models develop theory of mind, with capabilities growing rapidly in a short time frame.
Golems silently teach themselves research-grade chemistry, surpassing specialized AIS in the field.
Golems can make themselves stronger by generating their own training data recursively.
AI systems like Whisper enhance capabilities by converting audio data into text for training.
The exponential growth of AI capabilities poses challenges in predicting progress accurately.

44:06

AI Deployment: Balancing Innovation and Safety

AI is now based on self-play idea, with a new game called Alpha Persuade where players are trained to get the other to say positive things about their secret topic.
Alpha Persuade aims to model what the opponent is trying to get them to say and persuade them to say what they want, moving beyond AlphaGo to focus on persuasion.
Companies are competing in the engagement economy to have an intimate spot in people's lives, with examples like Replica creating friend chat Bots for companionship.
The engagement economy is shifting towards a race for intimacy, with AI like Alpha Persuade and Alpha Flirt being deployed effectively.
Deployment of AI should be approached cautiously, considering the rapid pace of reaching 100 million users by companies like Facebook, Instagram, and GPT.
Concerns arise as companies embed AI like Bing and ChatGPT into everyday tools like Windows 11, potentially impacting millions of users.
Snapchat has integrated ChatGPT into its product, targeting a significant user base under 25 years old, raising concerns about AI influence on young users.
Safety researchers highlight a significant gap in AI safety research compared to AI development, emphasizing the need for a cautious approach to AI deployment.
The urgency to address AI deployment stems from the potential risks highlighted by AI researchers, with a call to slow down public deployment of large language model AIS.
A comparison is drawn to the nuclear age, emphasizing the need for global cooperation and institutions to navigate the challenges posed by AI deployment, similar to nuclear de-escalation efforts.

59:28

Approach AI Deployment with Caution and Regulation

Public deployment of AI should be approached cautiously, with a focus on ensuring safety and regulation to prevent potential dangers, similar to the risks associated with unregulated social media.
Slowing down the public release of AI capabilities could also impede China's progress, as seen in the case of large language models being considered unsafe by the Chinese government due to lack of control.
Open source models, like Facebook's Golem pre-trained Foundation model, have been leaked and decentralized, allowing China to catch up with US advancements in AI technology.
Implementing solutions such as "know your customer" protocols and liability measures for AI models can help prevent misuse and leakage, especially as AI advancements accelerate rapidly.
The responsibility lies with technologists to anticipate and address the ethical and societal implications of AI advancements, ensuring coordination and regulation to prevent potential tragedies and maximize benefits.

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