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The 2022 Holberg Debate w/ John Mearsheimer and Carl Bildt: Ukraine, Russia, China and the West

Holberg Prize・111 minutes read

The Holberg Debate focused on the Global Security crisis involving Ukraine, Russia, China, and the West, highlighting the importance of deterrence strategies to prevent conflicts and maintain peace. The debate underscored the complexity of current global challenges and emphasized the critical importance of securing the future of Ukraine in Europe amidst rising tensions and the potential for nuclear escalation.

Insights

The Holberg Debate focuses on global security issues, emphasizing deterrence strategies and power dynamics to prevent future conflicts, featuring contrasting views from scholars like John Mearsheimer and Carl Bildt.
The conflict in Ukraine is portrayed as a result of differing security imperatives, with Russia viewing it as an existential threat that must be won, leading to concerns about nuclear escalation and the need for deterrence strategies.
The Ukraine-Russia conflict has strained relations in Europe, raising questions about future deterrent mechanisms and the potential for nuclear warfare, highlighting the importance of preventing nuclear escalation and building a firewall against nuclear weapons.
Cooperation among great powers is essential for addressing global challenges like climate change and pandemics, but intense security competition complicates collaboration, with the shift to a multi-polar world intensifying security competition and hindering agreements on arms control or proliferation.

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Recent questions

What is the Holberg Prize?
The Holberg Prize is a prestigious international award established by the Norwegian government in 2003 to honor exceptional scholars in various fields.
What is the focus of the Holberg Debate this year?
This year's Holberg Debate focuses on the current Global Security crisis involving Ukraine, Russia, China, and the West.
Who are the panelists for the Holberg Debate?
The panel for the Holberg Debate includes Professor John Mearsheimer, former Swedish Prime Minister Mr. Carl Bildt, and Dr. Cecilia Hill Street as the moderator.
What are the contrasting views presented in the Holberg Debate?
The debate features contrasting views from Mearsheimer, a realist scholar, and Bildt, a proponent of liberal traditions, on issues like Russia's actions in Ukraine.
Why is the current global situation considered serious?
Cecilia Hill Street emphasizes the seriousness of the current global situation, particularly highlighting Russia's military aggression towards Ukraine and the escalating tensions between the US and China.

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Summary

00:00

Holberg Debate: Global Security Crisis and Solutions

The Holberg Prize is a prestigious international award given to exceptional scholars in various fields, established by the Norwegian government in 2003 in honor of Ludwick Holberg.
The Holberg Debate is an annual event held in December to discuss pressing global issues, with this year's focus being on the current Global Security crisis involving Ukraine, Russia, China, and the West.
The debate aims to engage both academics and non-academics in discussing power dynamics and deterrence strategies to prevent future conflicts.
The panel for the debate includes Professor John Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago, former Swedish Prime Minister Mr. Carl Bildt, and Dr. Cecilia Hill Street as the moderator.
Cecilia Hill Street emphasizes the seriousness of the current global situation, particularly highlighting Russia's military aggression towards Ukraine and the escalating tensions between the US and China.
The debate features contrasting views from Mearsheimer, a realist scholar, and Bildt, a proponent of liberal traditions, on issues like Russia's actions in Ukraine.
Bildt stresses the importance of upholding principles of non-aggression and respecting borders to maintain peace and security in Europe, drawing parallels between Hitler's actions in the past and Putin's current aggression.
He emphasizes the need to roll back Russian aggression in Ukraine to restore peace in Europe and ensure the continent's stability and security.
Bildt also discusses the implications of the US-China rivalry, the role of the European Union in handling security threats, and the necessity of nuclear deterrence in maintaining overall security.
The debate underscores the complexity of current global challenges, including nuclear proliferation, climate change, technological advancements, and the need for responsible competition between major powers.

32:10

Securing Ukraine's Future in a Multi-Polar World

The speaker emphasizes the critical importance of securing the future of Ukraine in Europe.
The world is described as increasingly dangerous, with a shift from bipolarity to unipolarity to multi-polarity.
In the current multi-polar world, there are two conflict dyads involving great powers: U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia.
The U.S.-China competition is intense, with China aiming to dominate Asia as a regional hegemon.
The U.S. is pursuing a rollback strategy against China to prevent its regional hegemony.
Taiwan is a focal point of tension between the U.S. and China, with the potential for conflict.
In Europe, the focus shifts to the U.S.-Russia dyad, particularly concerning Ukraine.
The conventional view of Putin as an imperialist seeking to recreate a greater Russia is challenged.
The speaker argues that the West's efforts to bring Ukraine into NATO and the EU were viewed as an existential threat by Russia.
The conflict in Ukraine is portrayed as a result of differing perceptions of security imperatives, with Russia seeing it as an existential threat that must be won.

51:13

"Nuclear Weapons Vital in Ukraine Conflict"

Russian perspective sees thousands of nuclear weapons as crucial for survival.
American policy aims to defeat Russia in Ukraine.
Norwegian involvement in Western policy to defeat Russians and wreck their economy.
Ukrainians seek to recover territory and weaken Russians to prevent retaliation.
Diplomatic solution deemed impossible due to conflicting goals.
Potential for nuclear escalation if NATO succeeds in pushing Russian forces back.
Historical example of US using nuclear weapons on Japan due to lack of retaliation.
Ukrainians lack nuclear weapons, making them vulnerable to Russian nuclear use.
Possibility of nuclear escalation in Ukraine due to successful warfare against Russia.
Cold War had one conflict dyad, but current multipolar world poses two dangerous great power conflicts.

01:09:56

"NATO's Ukraine Dilemma: From Aspirations to Conflict"

NATO Summit at Bucharest in April 2008 declared Georgia and Ukraine would join NATO.
War in Georgia occurred in August 2008 following the Summit's decision.
Conflict in Ukraine began on February 22nd, 2014.
Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy opposed Ukraine's NATO entry in 2008.
Ukrainians sought a free trade agreement with the EU, leading to unrest.
Ukraine's desire for EU integration stemmed from economic and democratic aspirations.
Putin viewed Ukraine's democratic aspirations as a threat to his regime.
NATO reaffirmed commitment to bring Ukraine into the alliance in June 2021.
US trained and armed 10,000 Ukrainian troops annually from 2014 to 2024.
Ukraine was considered a de facto NATO member by its leaders.

01:28:32

"NATO's Response to Russian Threat in Europe"

In 2013, the Americans removed their last battle tank from Europe, signaling a shift in defense expenditure.
Following events like Crimea, Ukraine, and Russian invasions in 2014, NATO began providing forces to Eastern countries due to fears of Russian intentions.
Prior to these events, Ukraine's constitution maintained neutrality, with no native forces in new member States since 2004.
Despite no immediate existential threat, concerns arose about bringing Ukraine into NATO, potentially escalating tensions with Russia.
The idea of Ukraine joining NATO was a contentious issue, with fears of provoking Russia and escalating tensions.
Historical animosities and differing views on the Russian threat are evident in countries like Poland and Hungary.
The crisis in Ukraine in 2014 marked a turning point in European relations with Russia, leading to a shift in dialogue towards a more confrontational stance.
The failure of institutions like the OSCE to prevent conflict with Russia has raised questions about future deterrent mechanisms in Europe.
Russia's withdrawal from various European organizations and economic decoupling with the EU have further strained relations and raised uncertainties about future conflicts.
Concerns about the nuclear threat in the context of the Ukraine-Russia conflict vary, with some fearing a potential escalation to nuclear warfare.

01:46:16

Preventing Nuclear Blackmail: Diplomacy and Deterrence

Giving in to nuclear blackmail is dangerous and should be avoided.
American and European diplomacy is working to build a firewall against nuclear weapons.
Engaging with China to discourage the use of nuclear weapons has been effective.
The idea of giving in to nuclear blackmail is risky and should not be entertained.
The potential risk of nuclear war in Ukraine is acknowledged but not explicitly stated by Washington.
Retaliation against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine may involve conventional weapons.
The use of nuclear weapons by Russia could lead to severe consequences globally.
The legitimacy of Russia's seat on the U.N. Security Council would be jeopardized if they use nuclear weapons.
Russia's decision to go to war with Ukraine was primarily driven by Putin, not widely supported.
Deterrence strategies are crucial to prevent nuclear escalation and future wars in Europe.

02:03:55

Europe's Role in Evolving Geopolitical Rivalry

Stability in Europe is linked to a stable Ukraine, as instability in Ukraine could lead to a constant temptation for dangerous individuals in Russia.
Geopolitical rivalry is evolving, with the US and China on one side and the US and Russia on the other, leaving Europe in a unique position.
Europe's role in the rivalry is primarily economic, with the US seeking European support in containing Chinese power through trade restrictions.
The US is focused on containing Chinese power through military and economic means, with Europe expected to play a limited role in military aspects but crucial in economic strategies.
Europe is adapting to a more hybrid world, with the US emphasizing integrated deterrence involving military, sanctions, and other measures.
Europe, as a hybrid power, coordinates various policies and instruments to address hybrid threats, focusing on cyber, trade, migration, and security.
Tensions between the US and Europe may arise due to differing views on trade with China, with Europe prioritizing economic growth and prosperity over throttling the Chinese economy.
The fear of China overtaking the US drives American policies, leading to tensions and potential conflicts in the future.
Cooperation among great powers is essential for addressing climate change, pandemics, and arms control, but intense security competition hinders such collaboration.
The shift to a multi-polar world with three great powers intensifies security competition, making cooperation on crucial issues challenging, especially in the context of nuclear proliferation and climate change.

02:21:34

Global Rivalries Threaten International Security and Stability

The issue of parity arises when a third party increases its stockpile, leading to questions about restrictions or new agreements among the US, Russians, and Chinese.
The intense security competition in East Asia between the US and China, as well as between Russia and America, complicates the prospect of agreements on arms control or proliferation.
Medium and regional powers like Brazil, South Africa, Nigeria, and others initially opposed Russia's aggression towards Ukraine but later hesitated to exclude Russia from international institutions, showing a desire to reduce tensions between major powers.
Countries in the global South, affected by food and energy prices due to conflicts, have an interest in stopping wars and have voted on resolutions, with some attempting mediation efforts.
Outside the West, many view the US as a thuggish state, challenging the perception of the US and its allies as the "good guys" in international conflicts.
Armed conflicts globally have increased since 2018, with low-scale conflicts dependent on international institutions like the UN Security Council for resolution.
The Security Council's effectiveness depends on the cooperation of powerful states, with the current situation resembling the Cold War era, hindering multilateral cooperation on major issues.
The Iran nuclear deal exemplifies the challenges of global cooperation, with past agreements affected by changing geopolitical dynamics and the actions of key players like the US and Iran.
The potential for conflict escalation due to global rivalries and the actions of major powers like Russia and the US poses a threat to international security and stability.
The ongoing war in Ukraine and rising global rivalries highlight the need for stronger cooperation in Europe, a focus on addressing global challenges, and careful handling of tensions between major powers like China and the US.

02:39:27

"Resolution of Cuban Missile Crisis and Beyond"

Kennedy and Khrushchev resolved the crisis by removing missiles, but sanctions on Cuba remain; it is crucial to avoid boxing Russia in and instead work towards cooperation to prevent trouble, while also considering the implications of trading with China for economic growth.

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