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The 12 New Countries That Might Exist Soon

RealLifeLore・49 minutes read

Dozens of new UN-recognized countries have emerged since the end of the Cold War in 1990, with significant changes in the world map, including the birth of Chia, the collapse of the Soviet Union leading to the creation of new independent states, and ongoing independence movements across various regions globally. The text also explores independence movements in New Caledonia, Western New Guinea, Greenland, Scotland, Catalonia, the Basque region, the Kurdish population, and the Tuareg people, highlighting the complex dynamics of seeking autonomy and independence in different parts of the world.

Insights

  • 1. Numerous new countries have emerged since the Cold War's end, including South Sudan, Czechia, and Chia, reshaping the global map significantly.
  • 2. New Caledonia's recent referendums and the impact of Covid-19 highlight ongoing independence movements, with France's geopolitical interests and nickel reserves at stake.
  • 3. Various regions, such as Catalonia, Iraqi Kurdistan, and Ambazonia, continue to pursue independence through referendums or rebellions, challenging existing political structures.

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Recent questions

  • What is the significance of New Caledonia to France?

    New Caledonia holds geopolitical importance for France due to its rich nickel reserves, making France the fourth-largest producer globally. France's strategic interest in the Indo-Pacific region is also tied to New Caledonia.

  • What is the current status of Greenland's independence movement?

    Greenland, an autonomous territory under Denmark, has a small population mostly consisting of Inuit people. Despite economic concerns, support for independence remains high, with progress towards negotiating independence indicated by the unveiling of a draft constitution in 2023.

  • What is the current stance of Nicola Sturgeon on Scottish Independence?

    Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party, views the upcoming UK general election in January 2025 as a de facto referendum on Scotland's Independence. The UK Supreme Court ruled in 2022 that the Scottish Parliament lacks the legal authority to unilaterally call for another Independence referendum.

  • What is the history of Catalonia's push for independence?

    Catalonia's modern independence movement dates back to the late 19th and early 20th centuries, with a rise in Catalan nationalism. After the Spanish Civil War, Catalonia's autonomy was crushed, leading to a ban on the Catalan language and repression of its culture.

  • What is the current situation of the Kurdish independence movement?

    The Kurds, numbering between 30 and 45 million people across Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, seek independence to form a unified Kurdish state. Iraqi Kurds achieved political autonomy in 1992, establishing the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Northern Iraq, while Syrian Kurds have gained autonomy but not declared independence due to fears of Turkish intervention.

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Summary

00:00

Emergence of New UN-Recognized Countries

  • Dozens of new UN-recognized countries have emerged in the past 30 years since the end of the Cold War in 1990, leading to significant changes in the world map.
  • The collapse of the Soviet Union between 1990 and 1991 resulted in the birth of 15 newly recognized independent states, including Chia, which unilaterally declared independence from Russia in 1991.
  • Chia fought two brutal Wars of Independence against Russia in the 1990s, resulting in its reabsorption by Russia in 2000 and the formation of a Chuchin government in exile in London.
  • Yugoslavia's collapse after 1991 led to the creation of six or seven new independent countries, including Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Serbia and Montenegro.
  • Czechoslovakia split into two new countries, Czechia and Slovakia, in 1993, while Eritrea declared independence from Ethiopia in 1994.
  • Palau achieved sovereignty and independence from the United States in 2002, and East Timor became the first new independent country of the 21st century after a struggle against Indonesia.
  • South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011, becoming the world's youngest widely recognized independent state.
  • Since 2011, only four new widely recognized independent countries have emerged: East Montenegro, Kosovo, and South Sudan, raising questions about potential future new countries.
  • Banville in the Western Pacific is likely to become the world's next widely recognized independent country, with a history of conflict and a referendum in 2019 showing overwhelming support for independence from Papua New Guinea.
  • New Caledonia, a French overseas territory in the Pacific, has seen independence movements among the indigenous Kanak people, with two referendums in 2018 and 2020 showing increasing support for independence from France.

13:23

Struggles for Independence in Pacific Territories

  • The Covid-19 pandemic struck New Caledonia between the second and third referendums, resulting in over 300 deaths, disproportionately affecting the pro-independence indigenous Kana community.
  • Pro-independence parties requested the French government to reschedule the final referendum due to the pandemic's impact on campaigning, but France refused, leading to a boycott by pro-independence parties.
  • The 2021 referendum in New Caledonia saw an overwhelming 96.5% vote for remaining with France, with only 3.5% voting for independence, and a low voter turnout of 43.9% due to the boycott.
  • New Caledonia's significance to France lies in its geopolitical strategy for the Indo-Pacific region, rich in nickel reserves, making France the fourth-largest producer globally.
  • France has left open the possibility of another independence referendum in New Caledonia within one or two generations, but pro-independence parties are challenging the 2021 results in the International Court of Justice.
  • Western New Guinea, politically controlled by Indonesia, is home to remote, isolated, and undeveloped regions with uncontacted tribes and over 400 languages spoken.
  • Indonesia's control over Western New Guinea stems from the New York Agreement in 1962, leading to a controversial self-determination referendum in 1969 with limited voting representation.
  • The Free Papua Movement emerged in Western New Guinea, advocating for independence and facing opposition from the Indonesian government, which considers it a terrorist organization.
  • Greenland, an autonomous territory under Denmark, has a small population of about 57,000, mostly Inuit, with support for independence remaining high despite economic concerns.
  • Greenland's potential independence hinges on a future referendum, with the unveiling of a draft constitution in 2023 indicating progress towards negotiating independence from Denmark.

27:16

"Scotland and Catalonia: Independence Movements Compared"

  • The UK Supreme Court ruled in November 2022 that the Scottish Parliament lacks the legal authority to unilaterally call for another Independence referendum.
  • Nicola Sturgeon's current stance is that the upcoming UK general election in January 2025 will serve as a de facto referendum on Scotland's Independence.
  • Opinion polls in Scotland have shown a recent trend towards favoring Independence, with the majority ranging from 51% to 56% in favor.
  • A separate nationwide poll indicated that 55% of all UK residents support the Scottish government's right to hold a second Independence referendum.
  • The legal route for Scotland to hold another Independence referendum soon is in serious doubt.
  • The Catalans, a romance ethnic group in Spain, have a distinct identity and language separate from Spanish or French.
  • Catalonia's modern independence movement traces back to the late 19th and early 20th centuries, with a rise in Catalan nationalism.
  • After the Spanish Civil War, Catalonia's autonomy was crushed, and the Catalan language was banned and repressed.
  • Catalonia's push for independence escalated, leading to an illegal referendum in 2017, resulting in a declaration of independence.
  • The Basque people, with a unique language isolate, have historically sought independence from Spain, with support for a legally recognized referendum steadily increasing.

41:35

Movements for Independence in Various Regions

  • The Kurds, numbering between 30 and 45 million people, reside across Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, seeking independence to form a unified Kurdish state.
  • The Iraqi Kurds achieved political autonomy in 1992, establishing the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Northern Iraq.
  • In 2017, the KRG held an independence referendum, with 72.2% voter turnout and 92.7% in favor of independence, but faced opposition from the Iraqi government.
  • Syrian Kurds have gained autonomy but have not declared independence, fearing Turkish intervention due to separatist PKK factions.
  • The Tuareg people in Northern Africa, numbering around 4 million, have had rebellions seeking independence, with the most recent in 2012 leading to the declaration of Azawad, swiftly destroyed by French intervention.
  • The Azawad movement has resurged in Mali, controlling significant territory in the North, potentially leading to another declaration of independence.
  • In Cameroon, the anglophone minority in the West declared the independence of Ambazonia, sparking a civil war with the Cameroonian government.
  • The Southern Transitional Council in Yemen seeks the reestablishment of South Yemen, potentially leading to a return to a politically divided Yemen.
  • NordVPN offers secure internet access, allowing users to bypass geo-blocks, protect data on public Wi-Fi, and access blocked websites, with features like threat protection and dark web monitoring.
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