Sarah C. M. Paine - WW2, Taiwan, Ukraine, & Maritime vs Continental Powers
Dwarkesh Patel・108 minutes read
Successful grand strategy requires coordination of all national power instruments, historical decisions are often influenced by factions and individuals. Wars are challenging to end due to leadership narratives and fears, reflecting the difficulty of military decisions.
Insights
- Successful grand strategy requires coordination of all national power instruments to achieve objectives.
- Historical decisions are often influenced by factions and individuals rather than overall country strategy.
- The importance of leadership in preventing catastrophic mistakes, like Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor, is highlighted.
- Understanding history and strategy requires extensive reading, publishing, and continuous reassessment of one's knowledge and perspectives.
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Recent questions
How did democracy impact World War II coordination?
Democracy played a significant role in better coordinating budgets and resources during World War II. This allowed for a more cohesive effort between military and civilian sectors, leading to more effective grand strategy implementation. The democratic process facilitated discussions and debates among relevant parties, ensuring that decisions were made with input from various perspectives. This collaborative approach helped in integrating all national power instruments to achieve common national objectives, showcasing the benefits of democratic governance in times of conflict.
What led to Japan's failures in World War II?
Japan's failures in World War II were primarily attributed to the lack of coordination between military and civilian sectors. The absence of a successful grand strategy that integrated all national power instruments hindered Japan's ability to achieve its national objectives. Decision-making processes were often influenced by factions and individuals rather than a cohesive country strategy, leading to strategic mistakes and overextension. This lack of coordination and strategic planning ultimately contributed to Japan's downfall in the war.
Why did Japan's military have high morale in World War II?
The high morale of Japan's military during World War II stemmed from cultural obligations and loyalty. Surrender was viewed as dishonorable in Japanese culture, leading to soldiers' reluctance to surrender even in dire situations. This cultural mindset, combined with a strong sense of duty and loyalty to their country, fueled the Japanese military's morale throughout the war. These cultural factors played a significant role in shaping the behavior and mindset of Japanese soldiers during the conflict.
How did Emperor Hirohito impact Japan's surrender in World War II?
Emperor Hirohito intervened at the end of World War II to break the deadlock and accept defeat, leading to Japan's surrender. His decision to accept defeat was crucial in ending the war and preventing further destruction and loss of life. By acknowledging the reality of Japan's situation and prioritizing the well-being of the country, Emperor Hirohito played a pivotal role in shaping the outcome of the war and initiating the process of rebuilding and recovery for Japan.
What were the consequences of Japan's economic exhaustion in 1945?
By 1945, Japan was economically and physically exhausted, leading to a shattering of society. The societal exhaustion resulting from economic hardships and physical devastation had profound consequences for Japan post-World War II. This exhaustion, coupled with the realization that they were not on "death ground," contributed to a shift in mindset and paved the way for Japan's surrender and subsequent rebuilding efforts. The economic and societal repercussions of Japan's exhaustion in 1945 played a significant role in shaping the country's trajectory in the aftermath of the war.
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Summary
00:00
"Grand Strategy: Coordination for National Success"
- Sarah Paine is a professor of strategy and policy at the Naval War College and a renowned military history author.
- Grand strategy involves integrating all national power instruments to achieve national objectives.
- Lack of coordination between military and civilians led to Japan's failures in World War Two.
- Successful grand strategy requires coordination of all national power instruments.
- Historical decisions are often influenced by factions and individuals rather than overall country strategy.
- Decision-making processes involve debates and arguments among relevant parties.
- Democracy played a role in better coordination of budgets and resources during World War II.
- The strategic leaders of World War II focused on institution building and integrating national power elements.
- Hitler's strategic mistakes in World War II led to his downfall, despite initial successes.
- Territorial conquest and violence are outdated methods of national security, with international cooperation being more beneficial since the Industrial Revolution.
14:04
Struggle for national identity and surrender consequences.
- Ukrainians feel that coexisting with Russians is no longer possible due to Putin's actions.
- The Revolutionary War in the United States helped forge a national identity despite diverse colonies.
- The strategy of unconditional surrender was pursued against Germany and Japan.
- The United States did not put the people of Germany and Japan on death ground, unlike the Russians and Germans in Poland.
- The Japanese people eventually realized they were not on death ground, leading to societal exhaustion.
- The Japanese military's high morale stemmed from cultural obligations and loyalty.
- Surrender was seen as dishonorable in Japanese culture, leading to soldiers' reluctance to surrender.
- By 1945, Japan was economically and physically exhausted, leading to a shattering of society.
- Emperor Hirohito intervened at the end of the war to break the deadlock and accept defeat.
- World War I's mismanagement led to a power vacuum and the rise of fascist and communist ideologies.
28:22
Impact of Growth Rates on Economic Success
- Russia's economy is currently smaller than Mexico's, showcasing the impact of compounding growth rates.
- Tyler Cowen's book illustrates how a 1% lower growth rate annually in the U.S. from 1890 to the 20th century would have led to a lower per capita GDP than Mexico's.
- Sanctions may not change behavior immediately but suppress growth, strengthening the sanctioning party over time, as seen in North and South Korea.
- Stalin's success post-World War II came at a high cost in human lives, questioning the narrative of his achievements.
- FDR's strategic decisions during World War II, including cooperation with Russia, were influenced by the need to defeat Hitler.
- The spread of communism in Russia and China was contingent on historical events, like the Bolsheviks' control of industrial centers and rail networks.
- The Chinese Nationalists' inability to consolidate control post-war was due to logistical challenges and Japanese blockades.
- The selection effect of war casualties often eliminates competent individuals, impacting future leadership and strategic decisions.
- Starvation during wars, like World War II, leads to millions of civilian deaths, emphasizing the impact of conflict on populations.
- Wars are challenging to end due to leadership narratives and fears, as seen in Germany and Japan post-1943, reflecting the difficulty of military decisions.
41:53
Understanding Perspectives: Importance of Multinational Research
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding different perspectives, particularly from countries like Russia, China, and Japan.
- To evaluate a book's credibility, the speaker suggests checking the bibliography for sources in the languages of the countries discussed.
- The speaker reads books in their original languages using dictionaries, highlighting the importance of thorough research.
- The speaker recommends books on naval operations to understand US maritime strategy and foreign policy.
- Extensive research by the speaker includes time spent in the Soviet Union, PRC, Japan, and Taiwan, focusing on archival research.
- Due to the closure of archives in Russia and China, the speaker now relies on US presidential archives and British national archives for research.
- The speaker discusses the beginning of the Cold War in 1917 and the impact of communist ideologies on Western perceptions.
- The speaker delves into the Japanese occupation of Manchuria, Korea, and Taiwan, highlighting the infrastructure and educational improvements made by Japan.
- The speaker contrasts the economic development approaches of the United States and Japan in the Philippines and Taiwan, emphasizing the effectiveness of Japan's bottom-up approach.
- The speaker reflects on the potential economic prosperity in Asia if Japan had not engaged in militaristic actions, pondering a counterfactual scenario where the Japanese Empire survives peacefully.
56:17
Unintended Consequences: From Tariffs to World War
- The Hawley-Smoot tariff was implemented in 1930 to protect American jobs by imposing tariffs.
- The tariff led to retaliation from Japan, affecting their trade relationships and pushing them towards seeking an empire for resources.
- The lack of a grand strategy by Americans led to unintended consequences like the invasion of Manchuria by Japan in 1931.
- The failure to consider broader implications resulted in significant global conflicts like World War II.
- Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor was a pivotal error due to overextension and misjudgment of consequences.
- The importance of leadership in preventing catastrophic mistakes, like Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor, is highlighted.
- The embargoes from the U.S. were seen as a provocation by Japan, leading to tensions and potential conflicts.
- The decision-making process of countries like Russia and the importance of understanding their reasoning is crucial in international relations.
- The potential for nuclear war and the need to prevent it through diplomatic efforts and strategic alliances is emphasized.
- The significance of superior alliance systems, rather than just financial resources, in winning wars is highlighted.
01:10:07
Eastern Europeans and Japanese: Post-War Leaders
- Eastern Europeans are leaders in certain aspects.
- Finns and Swedes are actively involved in current affairs.
- Supporting Ukrainians is crucial due to local involvement in fighting.
- Successful interventions involve locals leading the fight.
- Post-World War 2, Japan and Germany had successful occupations.
- Rapid rebuilding of institutions in Western Europe post-war.
- MacArthur played a key role in drafting Japan's constitution.
- Japan's post-war leaders ensured lasting changes in governance.
- Germany and Japan had competent post-war generations.
- Afghanistan and Iraq lack developed country status and face internal conflicts.
01:24:31
"Surveillance, Accuracy, Costs, Criticism, Interventions, Misinformation, Transition"
- Surveillance system tracks activities like jaywalking and student behavior for social scores.
- Concerns about accuracy in facial recognition and potential false positives.
- High costs and manpower required for surveillance system.
- Criticism of Chinese government's handling of COVID and cover-up.
- Suggestions for cost-effective interventions like iron supplements for child nutrition.
- Comparison of Soviet Union's GDP allocation to military with US during WWII.
- Impact of lies and misinformation in communist states on decision-making.
- Misallocation of resources in Russia due to incorrect data.
- Transition of German and Japanese weapon manufacturers to consumer product creators post-WWII.
- Importance of supplying Russia during WWII for their war efforts.
01:38:22
"Global Conflict, Sovereignty, and Military Strategy"
- Children, genetically related, may do unexpected things despite pressure
- Questioning the worth of engaging in conflict over a small island
- Global order based on sovereignty, suggesting sanctions on China
- CCP's survival linked to taking Taiwan, potential consequences of failure
- Importance of cooperation, negotiation, and international organizations in maintaining order
- Critique of communism's economic growth impact and poverty route
- Comparison of Navy's testing post-World War II to Air Force and Army
- Discussion on the usefulness and vulnerabilities of carriers in naval warfare
- Asymmetric warfare's impact, including the use of drones
- Examination of civilian control over the military in different countries, focusing on Japan and the US
01:52:33
US Information Warfare: Cold War to Present
- The United States engaged in robust information warfare during the Cold War, utilizing Voice of America and BBC to reveal the truth about living standards to undermine people's allegiance to their governments.
- The US ceased funding information warfare after the Cold War, but later realized the importance of it when facing Russian propaganda.
- Biden strategically released intelligence to counter Russian propaganda before the Ukraine war, burying Putin in the information war.
- The US ambassador in Japan is actively engaging in information warfare against China, showcasing American talent in this field.
- The Axis powers failed to coordinate effectively, leading to their downfall in World War II.
- The primary enemies of various countries during World War II determined their alliances and strategies.
- Japan's industrialization differed from Korea and Taiwan due to historical and geopolitical factors.
- The Soviet Union's strategy in World War II was more effective in Asia due to the lack of developed countries and robust institutions.
- China's historical focus on continental warfare and national security threats from the North shaped its military strategies.
- Understanding history and strategy requires extensive reading, publishing, and continuous reassessment of one's knowledge and perspectives.
02:06:49
"Global Politics: Language, Strategy, and Influence"
- U.S. graduate education in political science lacks emphasis on high-end linguistic skills, which are crucial for international relations.
- Learning a different language provides insight into hierarchical societies and how they categorize things.
- Living in a country while conducting archival research enhances understanding of its culture and societal workings.
- The difference between continental and maritime powers lies in their security strategies - territorial control versus commerce and international law.
- Maritime powers focus on trade and international law for security, while continental powers like Russia and China prioritize territorial expansion.
- Joining a maritime order offers security and input on its evolution, contrasting with the negative-sum approach of continental powers like Russia.
- China's potential leadership in the global order is hindered by its continental view, which may depress growth and limit its influence.
- The Naval War College's focus on maritime strategy is essential for understanding the strategic prerequisites for being a maritime power.
- Understanding the maritime position is crucial for U.S. foreign policy decisions, as it offers flexibility in choosing when to engage in conflicts.
- Technology experts should consider how their innovations may impact political systems, pondering whether they favor dictatorships or democracies.
02:20:36
"Tech Infrastructure, National Security, Political Landscapes"
- The importance of maintaining a strong technological infrastructure, particularly in the realm of cybersecurity, is emphasized, with a focus on the potential consequences of breaching these defenses.
- The discussion extends to the impact of foreign investment and long-term strategies on national security, specifically addressing the issue of refugees and illegal immigration.
- The role of technology in shaping political landscapes is explored, highlighting the complexities of predicting the outcomes of technological advancements and the responsibility of individuals to contribute positively to societal progress.
