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John Mearsheimer: What’s Behind Biden’s Blank Check Support for Israel? | Endgame #179 (Luminaries)

Gita Wirjawan・54 minutes read

Professor John Mearsheimer discusses the Russian advantage in manpower and artillery over Ukraine, suggesting Ukraine negotiate with Russia to freeze territorial losses and avoid further conflict. The US faces distraction in the Middle East and Ukraine, hindering focus on China as the primary global threat.

Insights

  • Russia's significant advantage in artillery over Ukraine, with a reported 10 to 1 or even 15 to 1 ratio, highlights a critical military disparity that heavily favors the Russian forces, impacting the outcome of conflicts and shaping the future of the region.
  • Professor John Mearsheimer's recommendation for Ukraine to negotiate a settlement with Russia to freeze the status quo on the ground, ensuring Ukraine's neutrality and non-alignment with the West, offers a strategic approach to potentially prevent further territorial losses and stabilize the region, shedding light on diplomatic solutions amid conflict scenarios.

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Summary

00:00

Russian Advantage Threatens Ukraine's Future

  • Professor John Mearsheimer from the University of Chicago discusses the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive launched on June 4th, 2023, aiming to penetrate Russian lines and conquer territory.
  • By the end of 2023, the Russians achieved a decisive victory in Avdiivka, Ukraine, signaling a grim future for Ukraine due to a significant Russian advantage in manpower and artillery.
  • The Russians' historical focus on mass production of armaments gives them a substantial advantage in artillery over the West, with reports indicating a 10 to 1 or even 15 to 1 advantage in some battles.
  • Both Ukrainians and Russians receive assistance in artillery production, with the Russians reportedly getting help from North Korea.
  • The Russian Air Force's development of precision guidance kits for bombs has given them a significant advantage in air power, further tilting the balance in their favor.
  • The Russians hold a population advantage of roughly 5 to 1 over Ukraine, with the latter struggling to mobilize enough troops due to financial constraints and resistance within the country.
  • Ukrainian soldiers, on average, are reported to be around 43 years old, with many draft dodgers and individuals unfit for service being forced into the army.
  • Professor Mearsheimer suggests that Ukraine should negotiate a settlement with Russia to freeze the status quo on the ground, avoiding further territorial losses by assuring Russia of Ukraine's neutrality and non-alignment with the West.
  • He predicts that Russia may annex four more oblasts in Ukraine, in addition to Crimea and the four easternmost oblasts already under Russian control.
  • The potential outcomes of negotiations with Russia differ under a Biden or Trump presidency, with Biden likely reluctant to accept a deal that results in significant territorial losses for Ukraine, while Trump might push for a settlement to end the conflict.

19:03

US Foreign Policy: Ukraine, Russia, and Israel

  • Loss of the United States in Vietnam led to Vietnam becoming a strong supporter of the US.
  • A settlement involving Ukraine, Russia, and the West may not lead to close relations between the West and Ukraine due to Russian suspicion.
  • Predictions suggest a frozen conflict, similar to the situation between North and South Korea, in Ukraine's future.
  • The West and Ukraine are expected to undermine Russia's position in eastern Ukraine post-conflict.
  • The US has pushed Russia towards China, leading to a strong alliance between the two countries.
  • The US could work with Ukraine for a genuine peace agreement to improve relations with Russia.
  • The US foreign policy establishment often acts against public opinion, creating a disconnect.
  • Public opinion in the US regarding Ukraine is soft, with only 12% believing Ukraine can win the war.
  • The Israel lobby influences US policy towards Israel, hindering efforts to rein in Israeli actions in Gaza.
  • The lobby's influence prevents the US from fully aligning its interests with Israel's, potentially leading to conflicts.

36:41

Iran, Israel, US, China: Global Conflict Overview

  • Iran sponsors militant groups like the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Hamas in Syria and Iraq targeting Americans.
  • Iranians prefer to avoid war with Israel and the US, staying on the sidelines.
  • Israel aims to cleanse Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank for a Greater Israel.
  • A two-state solution is virtually impossible due to Israeli unwillingness.
  • Israel is considered an apartheid state by various human rights groups.
  • Zionism historically involved ethnic cleansing to establish a Jewish state.
  • The US should focus on China as the primary global threat.
  • The US is distracted by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, hindering focus on China.
  • China faces challenges in launching an amphibious operation to take Taiwan.
  • Conflict potential is higher in the South China Sea than in Taiwan due to territorial disputes.

53:37

"South China Sea Disputes and Power Dynamics"

  • The Chinese assert ownership of the South China Sea through the nine-dash line, causing disagreement with neighboring countries like the Philippines.
  • The South China Sea is crucial for maritime trade, with 60% of Japan's trade and 40-45% of China's trade passing through it.
  • Conflict potential in the South China Sea is higher than in the Taiwan Straits, with the involvement of the US likely against Chinese aggression.
  • Various claimant states, including Taiwan, Indonesia, and Vietnam, have disputes with China in the South China Sea.
  • Deterrence in the Taiwan Straits is strong due to US defense, difficult amphibious operations, and China's military limitations.
  • In the East China Sea, Japan's military capability and alliance with the US deter Chinese aggression.
  • Southeast Asian nations aim to manage multipolarity and potential conflicts in the South China Sea through discussions and a code of conduct.
  • China's military buildup in the South China Sea raises concerns about future actions, prompting Southeast Asian nations to focus on economic growth for deterrence.
  • Nationalism and liberalism are powerful ideologies shaping international relations, with realism often prevailing in conflicts between moral and realist logic.
  • Multilateral institutions like the UN, despite limited budgets, are influenced by and serve the interests of powerful states like the US, Russia, and China, rather than curbing their actions.

01:11:26

China's Rise to Great Power Status

  • China has transitioned from being a major power to a great power in recent years.
  • During the Cold War, the world was bipolar with the United States and the Soviet Union as superpowers, not including China.
  • Currently, the three great powers are the United States, China, and Russia.
  • China is creating its own institutions like the Asian Development Bank and Belt and Road, in addition to rewriting rules in existing institutions to favor itself.
  • In a multipolar world, proliferation is more likely compared to unipolarity or bipolarity, as intense security competition hinders cooperation.
  • Cooperation between great powers is challenging in a multipolar world, impacting efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation.
  • The intensity of security competition between China and the United States hinders cooperation on issues like climate change and nuclear proliferation.
  • Intellectual curiosity, independent thinking, and a balance of hubris and humility are essential for understanding international relations and contributing to global debates.
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