Сергей Гуриев. Студенческие протесты. Российская экономика: в каком состоянии и перспективы
Yulia Latynina・56 minutes read
Sergey Reeve is set to take on the role of dean at the London Business School after leaving his position as provost in France, while significant protests and changes are occurring at the Paris Institute of Political Studies due to allegations of domestic violence and student demands for institutional positions on political issues. President Macron is considering sending French troops to Ukraine if needed to prevent Putin's victory and defend Europe, with Putin facing financial challenges from war costs, budget deficits, and sanctions, alongside the impact of Western weapons and oil restrictions.
Insights
- Sergey Reeve, transitioning from provost in France to dean in England, holds a pivotal leadership role at the London Business School, signifying a significant career shift with potential long-term implications.
- The ongoing protests at the Paris Institute of Political Studies, marked by administrative changes and student demands on political issues, underscore a complex environment where academic freedom, political stances, and campus disruptions intersect, reflecting broader societal tensions and challenges.
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Who are Yulia Latynina and Sergey Reeve?
Prominent figures in academia.
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Summary
00:00
"Transition of Sergey Reeve to London Dean"
- Yulia Latynina and Sergey Reeve, a Russian economist now working in France and England respectively, are prominent figures in academia.
- Sergey Reeve is transitioning from his role as provost at the Paris Institute of Political Studies to become the dean of the London Business School starting in mid-July 2024.
- Reeve's new position as dean is considered the top leadership role at the London Business School, with a potential extension beyond the initial 5-year term.
- Reeve will be on a 5-year leave from his position in France to focus on leading the London Business School full-time.
- Significant protests and administrative changes are occurring at the Paris Institute of Political Studies (Sinpo), including the resignation of the director due to allegations of domestic violence.
- The appointment of an interim director at Sinpo has led to student protests and campus disruptions, with police intervention being a rare occurrence.
- The protests at Sinpo are primarily peaceful, with one incident involving anti-Semitic behavior currently under investigation.
- Students at Sinpo are demanding institutional positions on political issues, including the situation in Gaza, leading to discussions on academic freedom and university ties with Israeli universities.
- The student body at Sinpo is diverse in opinions, with various student unions representing different political stances.
- Discussions at Sinpo are ongoing regarding the demands of Palestinian students, with a focus on separating political stances from academic freedom and maintaining a civilized discourse.
17:46
Macron considers sending French troops to Ukraine.
- President Macron is open to sending French troops to Ukraine if the front collapses and President Zelensky requests assistance.
- Macron has previously mentioned the possibility of French troops in Ukraine and suggested an Olympic Truce.
- Macron believes Europe is in danger if Putin wins in Ukraine, emphasizing the need to defend Ukraine to prevent an attack on Europe.
- Putin's economy appears strong due to factors like defense spending boosting GDP, but there are concerns about sustainability.
- Putin may face financial challenges due to the war's costs, potential budget deficits, and the impact of sanctions.
- The Russian economy operates in two modes: one for military needs and another for civilian sectors facing challenges like rising costs and taxes.
- The Central Bank's high interest rate affects businesses, with the military sector less impacted due to prepayment of expenses.
- The labor market in Russia shows record payments to contract workers, indicating a shortage of individuals willing to fight in Ukraine.
- Putin's daily spending on defense is estimated at $500 million, with defense spending in the budget reaching around 15 trillion rubles.
- European and US aid to Ukraine, like the US's $1 billion package, is seen as insufficient compared to the overall needs of the situation.
33:34
"Western Aid Limits Putin's Military Budget"
- Europe and America finance the Ukrainian state's budget deficit, amounting to $5 billion per month initially and now $3 billion per month.
- Western assistance to Ukraine totals $46 billion annually, while Putin's military spending is around $100-120 billion per year.
- Sanctions have cost Putin $50 billion in income over 10 months, limiting his military budget.
- Putin faces budget constraints and may raise taxes, impacting economic activity.
- Western weapons are more effective than Putin's, increasing battlefield costs for him.
- Despite spending billions, Putin has not achieved victory over Ukraine.
- Sanctions on oil and technology hinder Putin's financial resources and technological advancements.
- Putin's shadow fleet bypasses sanctions, but transportation costs and discounts impact revenue.
- The price ceiling on Russian oil aims to reduce revenue without removing it from the market.
- American oil independence prevents significant impact on gasoline prices from Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries.
50:07
Global economy impacted by Chinese bank sanctions
- Chinese banks are starting to refuse loans due to secondary sanctions, impacting the global economy.
- The US potentially faces strategic repercussions due to its reliance on the dollar as a world reserve currency.
- The lack of an alternative to the dollar currently poses a significant challenge.
- Secondary sanctions are being implemented against undemocratic leaders who support harmful actions.
- Chinese companies are providing dual-use technologies to Russia, potentially evading sanctions.
- Researchers are tracking the flow of technology components to Russia, including microprocessors.
- The publication of facts about the 1990s, such as loans-for-shares auctions, is crucial for informing society.
- The film "FBK Study" presents important historical facts about the 1990s in Russia.
- The film highlights the corruption and controversial practices of the reformers during the 1990s.
- The film raises questions about whether the end justifies the means in political power struggles.
01:05:52
"Navalny's Correspondence Reveals Betrayal in Elections"
- Democratic values were betrayed by people in the elections, leading to the film being labeled a traitor.
- Alexei Navalny corresponded with the speaker, discussing economic questions and recommending the book "Dictators of Deception."
- Navalny received the book in English and reviewed it while in prison, emphasizing the importance of the correspondence.
- The film discusses the Chechen War, the failure of early nineties reforms, and the impact of Yeltsin's unpopularity on Putin's succession, highlighting the interconnectedness of events.
