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How Putin will eventually be overthrown by Russian elite | Roger Boyes

Times Radio・34 minutes read

The Roman legion exhibition at the British Museum highlights the effectiveness of modern armies, with a focus on the Roman army as a benchmark for evaluating contemporary wars. The text also delves into Western strategic thinkers' underestimation of nationalisms post-1989, Putin's internal challenges in Russia, Israel's strikes in Syria, and the evolving political landscape in the US and UK, including calls for an arms boycott against Israel.

Insights

  • The Roman legion exhibition at the British Museum highlighted the historical significance of the Roman army, serving as a model for modern military strategies and operations, influencing contemporary conflicts in various regions.
  • Putin's leadership in Russia is characterized by delusions of grandeur, irrational decision-making, and a focus on protecting Russian culture, with his actions in Ukraine viewed as a defense against NATO, creating concerns about potential future confrontations and the complex interplay of nuclear threats and self-deterrence.

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Recent questions

  • What was showcased at the Roman legion exhibition?

    The exhibition displayed the setup and operations of the first modern army, providing insights into modern armies' effectiveness.

  • What did Western strategic thinkers underestimate post-1989?

    They underestimated the resurgence of nationalisms and military capabilities.

  • What are the concerns regarding Putin's response to conflicts?

    Concerns include tunnel vision, irrationality, and delusions of a Messianic role.

  • What is the focus of Israel's strikes in Syria?

    Israel's strikes target Iranian Revolutionary Guard coordination for Hezbollah in Lebanon.

  • What countries have suspended arms deliveries to Israel?

    Canada, Netherlands, and Spain have chosen to suspend arms deliveries to Israel.

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Summary

00:00

"Modern armies, nationalisms, and Putin's delusions"

  • The Roman legion exhibition at the British Museum showcased the setup and operations of the first modern army, providing insights into modern armies' effectiveness.
  • The Roman army, established by Emperor Augustus, served as a benchmark for evaluating contemporary wars, including those in Russia, Italy, and Israel.
  • Current wars exhibit tactical successes but also strategic blunders, with internal conflicts between generals and political decision-makers.
  • Post-1989, Western strategic thinkers underestimated the resurgence of nationalisms and military capabilities, leading to underinvestment in defense.
  • The breakdown of communism did not mark the end of conflict, as nationalisms and military conflicts persisted, necessitating defense investments.
  • The potential removal of Putin from power in Russia may stem from internal challenges, with signs of weakness and rationality concerns being key factors.
  • Putin's response to the Crocus City Hall attacks in Moscow, blaming Ukraine, reflects tunnel vision and irrationality from prolonged involvement in intense conflicts.
  • Putin's delusions of a Messianic role, protecting Russian culture, have been evident since his early days in power, with comparisons to Caesar and Jesus.
  • Putin's war in Ukraine is seen as a battle against NATO, raising concerns about a potential direct confrontation with Russia in the future.
  • The West, under Biden, is cautious in supplying weapons that may threaten Russia directly, while Russia's veiled threats of nuclear weapon use create a complex dynamic of self-deterrence.

19:12

"International tensions rise as conflicts escalate"

  • Russian artillery shells aimed at Ukraine sometimes land in Poland, leading to reassurances from Russia that it wasn't intentional.
  • Poland was initially seen as trigger-happy, bordering Russia, prompting efforts to avoid triggering Article 5 of the NATO treaty.
  • Article 5, activated only after 9/11, lacks clarity on responses to attacks, creating uncertainties in international relations.
  • Putin dislikes unknown territories, leading to caution in certain moments but doesn't prevent other aggressive actions.
  • Israel's strikes in Syria target Iranian Revolutionary Guard coordination for Hezbollah in Lebanon, potentially escalating conflicts.
  • Israel's actions in Syria are monitored by Russian military intelligence officers, raising questions about Russia's stance.
  • Israel's strikes aim to shape the narrative around conflicts, emphasizing the role of Iran as a central threat.
  • Israel's lobbying efforts in the US aim to prevent shifts in policy towards a ceasefire or arms embargo.
  • Political constituencies in the US and UK are evolving, potentially impacting support for Israel.
  • Calls for an arms boycott against Israel are gaining traction, seen as an easy win politically due to minimal weapon supply and relevance to the Gaza conflict.

39:51

"Global arms suspensions, Netanyahu's uncertain future"

  • Countries like Canada, Netherlands, and Spain have chosen to suspend arms deliveries to Israel, presenting a possible option to maintain relationships without scrapping them entirely.
  • Britain's arms exports to Israel are routed through America, which is the main security provider for Israel, making it crucial for Britain to avoid hindering American arms deliveries to Israel.
  • Benyamin Netanyahu's political future in Israel is uncertain, with theories suggesting he may prolong the war to avoid facing judgment for security failures and inadequate peace deals.
  • Netanyahu's leadership style, potential loss of control over decision-making, and declining reputation within the Israeli Army could lead to challenges in handling the peace process post-war, indicating a complex and evolving political landscape in Israel.
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