Erdbeben Istanbul - Risiko und Frühwarnung DOKU ARTE

DOKU ARCHIV DE2 minutes read

Two major earthquakes in February 2023 caused over 50,000 deaths in Turkey and highlighted Istanbul's vulnerability, where 95% of buildings are unstable and current early warning systems offer only 5 seconds of notice. Ongoing efforts focus on improving disaster preparedness, constructing resilient infrastructure, and advancing research for better earthquake prediction amidst a growing population and inadequate safety measures.

Insights

  • The February 2023 earthquakes in Turkey and Syria resulted in over 50,000 official deaths, highlighting the urgent need for improved disaster preparedness and infrastructure in Istanbul, where 95% of buildings are considered unstable and inadequate for earthquake safety.
  • Current early warning systems in Istanbul only provide a mere 5 seconds of notice before an earthquake strikes, far less than the 80 seconds available in cities like Tokyo, underscoring the critical need for enhanced monitoring and preparedness strategies to protect a densely populated area at high risk for catastrophic seismic events.

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Recent questions

  • What is an earthquake?

    An earthquake is a sudden shaking of the ground caused by the movement of tectonic plates beneath the Earth's surface. This movement can release energy that has accumulated over time, resulting in seismic waves that travel through the Earth, causing the ground to shake. Earthquakes can vary in magnitude, with larger quakes causing more significant damage and posing greater risks to life and property. They can occur anywhere in the world, but certain regions, particularly those near tectonic plate boundaries, are more prone to seismic activity. Understanding earthquakes is crucial for disaster preparedness and infrastructure planning, especially in densely populated areas.

  • How can I prepare for an earthquake?

    Preparing for an earthquake involves several key steps to ensure safety and survival during and after a seismic event. First, it's essential to create an emergency plan that includes communication strategies and designated meeting points for family members. Additionally, assembling an emergency backpack with supplies such as water, non-perishable food, a flashlight, a first aid kit, and necessary medications is vital. Practicing earthquake drills can help individuals know how to react during an earthquake, such as taking cover under sturdy furniture and protecting their heads. It's also important to secure heavy furniture and appliances to walls to prevent them from toppling over. Lastly, staying informed about local emergency services and evacuation routes can significantly enhance preparedness.

  • What causes earthquakes?

    Earthquakes are primarily caused by the movement of tectonic plates, which are large sections of the Earth's crust that float on the semi-fluid mantle beneath them. These plates can interact in various ways, including colliding, sliding past each other, or pulling apart. When stress builds up along faults—fractures in the Earth's crust where these plates meet—eventually, the accumulated energy is released in the form of seismic waves, resulting in an earthquake. Other factors, such as volcanic activity, human activities like mining or reservoir-induced seismicity, can also trigger earthquakes. Understanding these causes is essential for assessing earthquake risks in different regions.

  • What should I do during an earthquake?

    During an earthquake, it is crucial to remain calm and take immediate action to protect yourself. The recommended response is to "Drop, Cover, and Hold On." First, drop down to your hands and knees to prevent being knocked over. Next, take cover under a sturdy piece of furniture, such as a table or desk, to shield yourself from falling debris. If no cover is available, protect your head and neck with your arms and stay in place. Avoid standing in doorways, as they may not provide adequate protection. Stay indoors until the shaking stops, and be cautious of aftershocks. Once safe, assess your surroundings for hazards and evacuate if necessary, following your emergency plan.

  • What are the effects of earthquakes?

    The effects of earthquakes can be devastating and vary depending on the magnitude, depth, and location of the quake. Common consequences include ground shaking, which can lead to structural damage to buildings, bridges, and roads, potentially resulting in injuries or fatalities. Secondary effects may include landslides, tsunamis, and fires caused by ruptured gas lines or electrical failures. The economic impact can be significant, with costs associated with rebuilding infrastructure and providing emergency services. Additionally, earthquakes can disrupt essential services such as water supply, electricity, and transportation, complicating recovery efforts. Understanding these effects is vital for effective disaster response and urban planning in earthquake-prone areas.

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Summary

00:00

Turkey and Syria Earthquakes Highlight Istanbul Risks

  • In February 2023, two major earthquakes of magnitude 7.4 and 7 struck southeast Turkey and northern Syria, resulting in over 50,000 official deaths on the Turkish side, with experts estimating the actual number to be significantly higher.
  • Istanbul, with a population that has surged from around 1 million to over 15 million in the last 50 years, is at high risk for a catastrophic earthquake, as 95% of its buildings are deemed unstable and would need demolition.
  • The region is characterized by an active fault zone where the Eurasian and Anatolian plates meet, causing significant energy accumulation underground, which could lead to a major earthquake with potential fatalities ranging from 10,000 to 500,000.
  • Current early warning systems in Istanbul provide only 5 seconds of advance notice, which is insufficient for effective evacuation, while systems in cities like Tokyo and Mexico City can provide warnings of up to 80 seconds, allowing for critical safety measures.
  • Disaster preparedness training is essential; for example, students in Istanbul practice earthquake drills, learning to protect their heads and wait for gas and electricity to be turned off before evacuating, as professional help may not arrive for up to 72 hours after a disaster.
  • An emergency backpack is recommended for every household, containing essentials like water, a flashlight, and a first aid kit, to ensure survival until help arrives after an earthquake.
  • Infrastructure improvements are underway, such as a subway bridge designed to withstand earthquakes up to magnitude 7.5, featuring a 70-meter long steel frame anchored to stable ground and a buffer system to absorb seismic tension.
  • Research at the Georesearch Center in Potsdam aims to develop methods for predicting earthquakes by analyzing precursors and foreshock activities, which could revolutionize early warning systems and provide more time for evacuation.
  • The need for improved disaster response is highlighted by the failure of Istanbul's warning system during a recent 5.8 magnitude earthquake, prompting calls for more monitoring stations and better preparedness strategies.
  • Collaborative international research is ongoing to enhance earthquake prediction capabilities, focusing on regions at risk, including Turkey, Greece, and Italy, where tectonic activity poses significant threats to populated areas.

22:44

Istanbul's Urgent Need for Earthquake Preparedness

  • The 2011 earthquake in Japan, with a magnitude of 9.1, resulted in over 16,000 deaths, highlighting the importance of earthquake-resistant infrastructure, which Japan has invested heavily in, including subsidies for buildings with vibration dampers.
  • Istanbul faces significant earthquake risks due to its high population density, aging buildings, and inadequate construction quality, with the Bakirkoy district identified as particularly vulnerable.
  • Many buildings in Istanbul are over 50 years old and lack proper earthquake safety measures; experts estimate that 95% of these structures would need to be demolished to ensure safety.
  • The Turkish government has been criticized for prioritizing prestige projects over essential urban safety measures, leading to a lack of financial support for demolishing unsafe buildings, leaving many residents in hazardous conditions.
  • Fire hazards post-earthquake are a major concern in Istanbul, particularly due to leaking natural gas and the proximity of fuel storage facilities, which could ignite fires after a seismic event.
  • New construction guidelines have been implemented, requiring the use of corrugated steel for better concrete bonding and increased amounts of steel to enhance building stability, addressing past issues of inadequate materials.
  • The Turkish building regulations have been tightened, but skepticism remains regarding the effectiveness of construction supervision, as inspectors were previously chosen and paid by builders, raising concerns about their independence.
  • Emergency preparedness is lacking, with only 80 out of over 2,800 designated collection points deemed suitable for public safety during an earthquake, highlighting the need for better planning and infrastructure.
  • Research indicates that Istanbul could experience an earthquake with a magnitude of up to 7.4, prompting the city administration to seek improvements in early warning systems and incorporate scientific research into earthquake preparedness strategies.
  • A significant construction project on the island of Büchig Ada involved embedding seismographs 300 meters deep to monitor seismic activity, costing around €300,000, and aimed at improving earthquake prediction capabilities in the region.

44:31

Enhancing Earthquake Monitoring in Marmara Region

  • The data converter used for seismographs has a limited memory capacity, preventing further recordings once full; the seismographs are embedded in concrete and can only be activated remotely, necessitating communication with colleagues in Potsdam to confirm data transmission, which is expected to be verified within five minutes of arrival in Ankara.
  • Marco Bohnhoff requires eight additional measuring stations in the Marmara region to enable comprehensive earthquake monitoring, as the fault zone lies beneath the Sea of Marmara; the current setup includes boreholes in the north near Prince's Island and in the south, with data from this region being crucial for understanding similar fault zones like the San Andreas Fault in California.
  • A geologist from the Technical University of Istanbul has shifted focus from earthquake prediction due to concerns about societal panic and inadequate infrastructure in Istanbul, where the population density is so high that there is insufficient space for safe evacuation; he is currently creating a 3D map of the Sea of Marmara to analyze complex fault systems and historical earthquake damage.
  • Following the February 2023 earthquake, Bohnhoff's research indicates that smaller quakes may serve as foreshocks to larger events, with ongoing studies expected to take several years to establish a reliable prediction system; the aim is to develop a method to assess daily earthquake risk, similar to current practices for extreme weather, while also addressing the urgent need for improved infrastructure and safety measures in the earthquake-prone region.
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