EP-134 | What Xi Jinping Wants, India-China Border Dispute with Lt. Gen Dr. SL Narasimhan (R)

ANI News84 minutes read

China's economic growth is slowing due to various factors, with predictions showing stabilization around 3 to 4% by 2030. Challenges like an aging population, unemployment, and the impact of the one-child policy are influencing China's economic and demographic landscape.

Insights

  • China's economic growth is slowing due to real estate crises, unemployment, and low domestic consumption, with predictions indicating a stabilization around 3-4% by 2030.
  • Demographic challenges in China, stemming from the one-child policy, are leading to an aging population, declining workforce, and potential strains on care and pension systems.
  • Xi Jinping's leadership in China, solidified during the 20th Congress, involves pushing hard to achieve goals, impacting alliances, military commissions, and internal politics.

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Recent questions

  • What are the factors affecting China's economic growth?

    Real estate crisis, unemployment, lack of domestic consumption.

  • What is the predicted growth rate for China by 2030?

    Stabilize around 3 to 4%.

  • How is China supporting its real estate sector?

    Measures like loan rescheduling, funding for selected companies.

  • What challenges does China face due to its demographic problem?

    Aging population, decline in working-age population.

  • How does China aim to become a world power by 2049?

    Economic and military reforms despite growth and demographic challenges.

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Summary

00:00

China's Economic Growth and Demographic Challenges

  • China's economic growth has slowed down due to factors like the real estate crisis, unemployment issues, and lack of domestic consumption.
  • Predictions suggest China's growth rate will stabilize around 3 to 4% by 2030, with a current growth rate of 5.2% on a $17 trillion economy.
  • China's real estate sector, contributing 29% to GDP, is being supported through measures like loan rescheduling and funding for selected companies.
  • Foreign Direct Investment into China is decreasing, but domestic savings may compensate for the lack of FDI.
  • China aims to become a world power by 2049, focusing on economic and military reforms, despite challenges in growth and demographic issues.
  • China faces a demographic problem due to its one-child policy, leading to an aging population and a decline in the working-age population.
  • The population decline could reach 600 to 700 million elderly by 2050-2060, posing challenges for care and pension schemes.
  • Unemployment among the 16 to 24 age group in China is around 20%, adding to the economic and demographic challenges.
  • China's export model is still crucial for GDP growth, compensating for weak domestic consumption, despite efforts to reduce reliance on exports.
  • China's foreign policy may be impacted by its demographic challenges, as the aging population and declining workforce could strain resources and influence strategic decisions.

15:39

China's Unemployment Concerns and Military Challenges

  • Unemployment rate in China was 14.2% for a year, previously at 20-21% for youth.
  • Concerns arise due to decreasing population and increasing unemployment.
  • Lack of studies on the impact of rising unemployment and decreasing job seekers.
  • Youth in China exhibit tendencies like "tping" (lying flat) and "Nan" (no involution).
  • PLA faced challenges in recruitment due to the one-child policy.
  • PLA incentivizes graduates to join, focusing on degree holders.
  • Conscription in China increased from once to twice a year.
  • PLA faces challenges in training duration and adequacy.
  • Face-off between India and China in 2020 escalated unexpectedly.
  • One Belt One Road Initiative started ambitiously in 2013 with $1 trillion investment, now slowing down due to economic and transparency issues.

31:17

China's Xi Jinping: Leadership and Strategy Insights

  • The returns of money by Pakistan, predicted in 2017, are expected to start affecting the country from 2021-22.
  • The 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in October 2022 marked Xi Jinping's third term as the top leader of China.
  • Xi Jinping's control over China was solidified during the 20th Congress, with loyalty from key committees and the military.
  • The Central Military Commission was reorganized under Xi Jinping's leadership, with new appointments and dismissals.
  • Factionalism in Chinese politics seemed to diminish post the 20th Congress, with alliances shifting.
  • Xi Jinping's leadership style involves pushing hard to achieve established goals, possibly for both national and personal interests.
  • China's alliances have evolved, with shifts in relationships with the US, Europe, and other countries.
  • Observations and readings were crucial during military service in China from 2002 to 2005 due to limited interactions.
  • Chinese strategic thinking draws from historical lessons, including the concept of weak-strong strategy for territorial expansion.
  • Historical context is essential for understanding China's expansionist policies and strategic thinking, such as the weak-strong strategy.

46:59

Global Elections and China's Military Plans

  • In 2024, over 50 countries are set for elections, with China potentially planning an attack amidst global distractions.
  • Russia's involvement in the Ukraine conflict and other conflict areas, along with ongoing elections, add complexity to the situation.
  • Taiwan's proximity to China poses challenges for any potential military action due to logistical complexities.
  • China's intentions regarding Taiwan remain uncertain, with a focus on peaceful reunification despite potential war plans.
  • Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" model faced challenges, impacting Taiwan's perception of potential unification.
  • Diplomacy plays a crucial role in diffusing tensions along the Line of Actual Control, with past incidents resolved through diplomatic efforts.
  • Negotiations are ongoing to stabilize the Line of Actual Control and prevent escalations like those in Dolam and Galwan.
  • A holistic approach involving military, government, and industry efforts is necessary to address the standoff effectively.
  • Different tracks of diplomacy, including official talks (Track 1), academic and industry involvement (Track 1.5), and think tank discussions (Track 2), play key roles in resolving conflicts.
  • The aftermath of the Galwan incident has seen China enhancing infrastructure and troop accommodations in border areas, potentially in response to past events.

01:02:51

"India-China Defense Relations and Strategic Challenges"

  • Real talking time amounts to about 4 to 5 hours, not to be alarmed by lengthy discussions.
  • The number of rounds in negotiations is not crucial; the focus should be on achieving the desired outcome.
  • Resolving boundary issues with China is complex and time-consuming, with different sectors requiring attention.
  • The goal with China is to maintain stability along the Line of Actual Control and avoid unilateral changes to the status quo.
  • India aims for self-sufficiency in defense production, reducing reliance on foreign equipment.
  • The defense ministry has initiated indigenization efforts, including technology transfers and domestic production of weaponry.
  • Exporting indigenous defense equipment is crucial to reduce dependency and foreign exchange expenditure.
  • China's presence in the Indian Ocean region poses strategic challenges for India due to competing interests.
  • China's expansion into the Indian Ocean region aligns with its global power aspirations and strategic interests.
  • Chinese sensitivity towards territorial claims is evident in their reactions to map inaccuracies and media coverage, impacting diplomatic relations.

01:18:27

Challenges and Progress in Chip Production

  • China faces challenges in chip production due to restrictions on lithography machines from the Netherlands, hindering their technological advancement.
  • The US has enacted the CHIPS Act and established foundries to address supply chain disruptions, with companies like TSMC and Micron setting up facilities.
  • India is attracting investments for manufacturing facilities, aiming to reduce critical dependencies and diversify supply chains.
  • Building indigenous capabilities in chip production will take time, with India gradually progressing in high technology sectors.
  • China remains a dominant force in chip production, with high volumes and a strong market presence.
  • High-end chips are crucial for specific applications, while lower nanometer chips suffice for everyday devices like TVs and washing machines.
  • Cultural similarities between India and China are reflected in the popularity of Indian films and shows in China.
  • Chinese society shows less curiosity about India compared to other countries, with a focus on national pride and inward-looking attitudes.
  • China's resistance to acknowledging India's rising power reflects geopolitical tensions and regional dynamics.
  • The future of India-China relations hinges on stabilizing the boundary line of actual control, with uncertainties surrounding the selection of the next Dalai Lama.

01:34:03

"Smitha Prakash Thanks Fans, Promotes Podcast"

  • Podcast episode featuring Smitha Prakash expressing gratitude to viewers and listeners
  • Encouragement to like, subscribe, and watch previous episodes
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