The Peril of Slowness: American Mistakes during Russia’s War of Aggression in Ukraine

Foreign Policy Association・2 minutes read

The Speaker highlights failures in American foreign policy during the Russo-Ukrainian War, emphasizing the importance of time in decision-making. The potential consequences of Russia winning the war, the need for American support in Ukraine, and the historical context of empires losing wars for positive change are discussed.

Insights

  • Professor Timothy Snyder highlights the failures of American foreign policy during the Russo-Ukrainian War, emphasizing the critical role of time in decision-making and the American struggle with thinking strategically in time.
  • Ukraine's resistance against Russia has not only prevented genocide and upheld international order but also supported the European Union model and NATO's mission, challenging the necessity of nuclear weapons and deterring China from war.
  • The potential collapse of the current timeline in Ukraine poses a significant threat, with the slow US response allowing Russian influence to grow, highlighting the urgent need for decisive action to prevent catastrophic consequences globally and support Ukraine effectively.

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  • Who is the annual Michael Reesman Distinguished Lecture honoring?

    Michael for 50 years of teaching at Yale Law School

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Summary

00:00

"Michael Reesman Lecture: American Foreign Policy"

  • The event is the annual Michael Reesman Distinguished Lecture on International Law and Diplomacy, honoring Michael for 50 years of teaching at Yale Law School.
  • Michael's family, including his wife Manou and daughter Diana, are recognized for their contributions to public international law.
  • Various diplomats, such as Ambassador Maito Masari and Ambassador Sergey Kisl, are acknowledged for their presence at the event.
  • Notable figures from the Foreign Policy Association, like former chairman Paul Ford and CUNY Chancellor Felix Matos Rodriguez, are highlighted.
  • Edward Swi and Charles Weight are recognized for their significant roles in supporting the Foreign Policy Association.
  • Professor Timothy Snyder is introduced as the speaker, known for his work in history and involvement in the documenting Ukraine project.
  • Professor Snyder discusses the failures of American foreign policy during the Russo-Ukrainian War, emphasizing the importance of time in foreign policy decisions.
  • He points out the American struggle with thinking in time, affecting their ability to anticipate and respond effectively in war.
  • The lecture delves into the concept of conjunctures, moments where actions can have significant impact, using the example of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
  • Professor Snyder challenges the American perspective on their role in the war, highlighting the need for a more realistic assessment of their commitment and actions.

17:38

Ukraine's crucial role in global affairs

  • The timeline of events and realities spreading out is crucial to understanding the significance of current events.
  • American foreign policy discourse rarely acknowledges the debt owed to Ukrainians for the past two years.
  • Ukraine's resistance has prevented a genocide and upheld international legal order.
  • Ukraine's defense also supports the European Union model and fulfills NATO's mission.
  • The absence of war with China in recent years is partly due to Ukrainian resistance deterring China.
  • Ukraine's conventional defense against a nuclear power challenges the necessity of nuclear weapons.
  • The potential collapse of the current timeline due to Russia's impending major offensive in Ukraine is a looming threat.
  • Social media, particularly Twitter, and Elon Musk's decision to cut off Ukrainian forces from Starlink have influenced the course of the war.
  • The executive branch correctly predicted Russia's invasion but lacked a comprehensive strategy to support Ukraine in winning the war.
  • Delayed action and symbolic weapon support from the US have hindered Ukraine's ability to capitalize on opportunities to win the war.

32:31

US Slow Response Risks Catastrophic Consequences

  • Himars system has been helpful in the past
  • Off-the-shelf systems could have had a significant impact if sent to Ukraine
  • Western nations overestimate the impact of sending small quantities of weapon systems
  • The legislative branch has not authorized funds for Ukraine recently
  • The Biden Administration's actions in 2022 affected future interactions with Congress
  • The slow response from the US government has allowed for Russian influence to grow
  • The Speaker of the House has contributed to delays in supporting Ukraine
  • The US's slow response has led to a disconnect with the urgency felt by Ukrainians
  • Failure to act decisively could lead to catastrophic consequences in Ukraine and globally
  • Russia's potential victory in Ukraine could have far-reaching negative effects, including on American reputation and global stability.

47:47

"Support Ukraine to overcome Russian aggression"

  • Russian soldiers killed in the war were mainly Ukrainians press-ganged into service, reflecting a complex situation.
  • The speaker highlights the need for Americans to acknowledge the potential for similar situations in their own context.
  • Victory in war is defined as when a political system can no longer sustain the conflict, emphasizing the importance of internal stability.
  • The speaker critiques realist views in international relations for overlooking the significance of time, domestic politics, and morale.
  • Disagreement with the notion that the war is already lost, emphasizing the need for American agency and action.
  • The potential for Ukraine to win the war with American weapons currently unused due to bureaucratic protocols is highlighted.
  • The speaker stresses the importance of overcoming psychological and institutional barriers to support Ukraine effectively.
  • The economic power disparity between Ukraine and its allies compared to Russia is significant, indicating the potential for Ukraine to succeed with support.
  • Criticism is directed towards institutional weaknesses in decision-making processes hindering effective aid to Ukraine.
  • Concern is expressed over the moral and psychological implications of failing to support Ukraine adequately and the potential for moral cover-ups of inaction.

01:01:11

Defeat for Empires: Historical Patterns and Outcomes

  • Defeat for an imperial power like Russia historically leads to positive outcomes, as seen in European history where losing Imperial Wars resulted in peace and the formation of the European Union.
  • The European story of peace post-1945 is a myth, as Europeans continued fighting wars until they lost them, leading to decolonization.
  • Russia, as an empire, fits into a historical pattern where empires overreach and eventually lose wars, with losing a war being crucial for a more normal future.
  • The outcome of Russia losing the current war should not be automatically viewed as worse, as losing genocidal wars is necessary to prevent perpetuating such actions.
  • Regime changes in Russia may seem odd from the outside but can feel normal to Russians, emphasizing the importance of recognizing their agency and unique ways of doing things.
  • US policy towards Russia should focus on supporting a democratic Ukraine, as a democratic Ukraine is essential for the possibility of a democratic Russia in the future.
  • Russia has a history of losing wars leading to periods of reform, indicating that defeat can open up possibilities for positive change.
  • Providing Ukraine with more air power, such as F-16s and Patriots, is crucial for protecting their airspace and cities from Russian aggression.
  • Ukrainians harbor anger over nuclear disarmament, believing that keeping their nuclear weapons could have deterred Russian invasion, highlighting a sense of betrayal in US security assurances.
  • Ukraine's progress towards democracy in the last 20 years stands out in a global trend of declining democracies, making it a crucial example of positive development amidst international setbacks.

01:14:35

Ukraine's Struggle for Democracy and Rule of Law

  • The story in Ukraine reflects Civil Society's efforts to move towards less oligarchy and more rule of law, a valuable trajectory for democracy. Losing Ukraine would not only be a loss in morale but also a setback for democracy globally, as it represents a country striving for democratic values, with its people willing to take risks for democracy, emphasizing the importance of supporting such movements to maintain democratic progress.
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