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What if Ukraine Loses?”. Carl Bildt, Yehor Cherniev, Niall Ferguson, Valerii Pekar

Victor Pinchuk Foundation・39 minutes read

The panel discusses the implications of Ukraine losing and the need to consider worst-case scenarios to maintain support for the war effort, highlighting the economic instability, potential population displacement, and failure of the Western Alliance if Ukraine falls. Despite challenges, Ukraine has shown resilience against Russia's military might, emphasizing the importance of the West providing necessary weapons to prevent Russian aggression and supporting Ukraine's victory to ensure a more secure Northern Eurasia and positive changes in the Russian political system.

Insights

  • Neil Ferguson stresses the importance of worst-case scenario planning for Ukraine's potential loss, highlighting economic instability, lack of investment, and population displacement as significant consequences.
  • Valer Peka underscores the positive impact of investing in Ukraine's victory, weakening authoritarian regimes, reducing global risks, enhancing military capabilities, and potentially leading to positive changes in the Russian political system.

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Recent questions

  • Why is it crucial for Ukraine to prevent losing the war?

    To prevent economic instability, displacement, and Western failure.

  • What are the potential outcomes of investing in Ukraine's success?

    Weakening authoritarian regimes, reducing global risks, and enhancing military capabilities.

  • What are the implications of Russia's goal to push the US out of the EU?

    Leading to a war economy and increased weapon production.

  • How does Ukraine's victory impact neighboring countries?

    Preventing buffer zones and upholding legal, moral, and security orders.

  • What are the major fears of the West regarding Ukrainian victory?

    Nuclear proliferation, humanitarian crises, radical Islamism, and Chinese influence.

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Summary

00:00

Implications of Ukraine's Victory and Defeat

  • The panel includes Yor Shiv, a member of the Rada and chairman of the Ukrainian delegation to the NATO parliamentary assembly, Neil Ferguson, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, and Valer Peka, co-founder of Nova K.
  • Neil Ferguson discusses the implications of Ukraine losing, emphasizing the need to consider worst-case scenarios to maintain support for the war effort.
  • Losing for Ukraine could mean economic instability, leading to a lack of investment and potential population displacement.
  • A defeat for Ukraine would signify a failure of the Western Alliance and American leadership, impacting European security and the credibility of NATO.
  • The cost of strategic autonomy for European countries in the face of a new Cold War is highlighted, with potential threats to other nations if Ukraine falls.
  • A victory for Russia would not only vindicate Russian imperialism but also support from other nations like China, crucial for Russia's war efforts.
  • Leia Vasilenko emphasizes that Ukraine has already won by maintaining independence and democratic institutions, but ongoing efforts are needed to prevent further aggression.
  • The allies of Ukraine support its victory to prevent neighboring countries from becoming buffer zones and to uphold legal, moral, and security orders.
  • Valer Peka outlines the positive outcomes of investing in Ukraine's success, including weakening authoritarian regimes, reducing global risks, and enhancing military capabilities.
  • The investment in Ukraine's victory is seen as crucial for ensuring a more secure Northern Eurasia and potentially leading to positive changes in the Russian political system.

18:56

Russian Ultimatum: Redrawing Borders for Dictatorship

  • Russia issued an ultimatum to NATO in December 2020 to push their borders back to 1997.
  • The goal is to influence not just Eastern Europe but the entire European continent with Russian dictatorship.
  • Russia aims to revise the world order through peaceful means but has failed with projects like One Belt One Way.
  • Russia's goal is to push the US out of the EU, leading to a war economy and increased weapon production.
  • Tensions with Taiwan, North Korea, and South Korea are part of a larger picture of global conflict.
  • Russia's actions indicate potential invasions in Baltic states or through various corridors.
  • The transfer of nuclear weapons to Belarus signals a warning to the West.
  • The consequences of Ukraine losing include global trade disruptions and refugee crises.
  • The West must provide necessary weapons to Ukraine to prevent Russian aggression.
  • Despite challenges, Ukraine has shown resilience against Russia's military might, highlighting Russia's failures in military offensives.

37:42

"West's Fight Against Russia in Ukraine"

  • Russia is attempting to convince the West that they will persist in achieving their goals in the ongoing war, despite economic and production challenges due to sanctions.
  • The West needs to focus on the war in Ukraine to counter Russia's dictatorship, as Russia disregards its society's opinions.
  • Victory for Ukraine is not just reaching 1991 borders but ensuring Russia is no longer a threat to Ukraine and the world.
  • Major fears of the West regarding Ukrainian victory include nuclear proliferation, humanitarian crises, radical Islamism, and Chinese influence.
  • The West aims to defeat Putin's regime, not necessarily occupy Russia, as peace with Putin is deemed impossible.
  • European support for Ukraine is significant, with potential to reduce defense spending to allocate more resources to Ukraine.
  • War is primarily a battle of wills, with Ukraine demonstrating strong will to defend itself against Russia.
  • Henry Kissinger's change of heart towards Ukraine's potential as a NATO member and great power in Europe is notable, emphasizing the importance of providing Ukraine with the necessary tools to finish the job.
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