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Stephen Kotkin: Russia’s Murky Future | Foreign Affairs Interview

Foreign Affairs・38 minutes read

Russia aims to navigate a Western-dominated world by seeking mutually beneficial relations, despite its failed invasion of Ukraine. Putin's regime suppresses political alternatives to maintain power, simulating elections while eliminating genuine opposition like Navalny, with the war in Ukraine becoming a business opportunity for the Russian elite.

Insights

  • Putin's regime in Russia is described as strong yet hollow, focusing on suppressing political alternatives to maintain power, including simulating elections and eliminating genuine opposition like Navalny. The emphasis is on opposing authoritarian regimes through legal and moral means rather than resorting to extreme measures like assassination.
  • The war in Ukraine has evolved into a war of attrition where Russia's war economy plays a significant role, benefiting the Russian elite and lower classes. Winning the peace for Ukraine involves stopping destruction without conceding sovereignty or other demands, highlighting the complexity of the situation and the need for a nuanced approach to resolving the conflict.

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Recent questions

  • What is Russia's Grand strategy?

    Navigating a Western-dominated world through beneficial relations.

  • How does Putin maintain power?

    Suppressing political alternatives and simulating elections.

  • What are Putin's objectives in the war in Ukraine?

    Unclear objectives shifting to war of attrition.

  • How has the Biden Administration responded to the war in Ukraine?

    Rallying Western support and humiliating Russia.

  • What are the potential scenarios for Russia's future?

    Five plausible scenarios explored, including challenges.

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Summary

00:00

Russia's Grand Strategy and Putin's Power

  • Russia's Grand strategy is to navigate a Western-dominated world by avoiding being anti-Western and seeking mutually beneficial relations with the West.
  • After Russia's failed invasion of Ukraine, Western support for Kiev initially threatened Vladimir Putin's power, but he now appears confident due to progress in Ukraine and upcoming American elections.
  • Historian Steven Cotkin discusses Russia's future and how the United States can prepare for it.
  • Putin's regime is described as strong but hollow, with a focus on suppressing political alternatives to maintain power.
  • Putin simulates elections to maintain power, with genuine political alternatives like Navalny being eliminated.
  • The idea of assassinating Putin is not a viable solution, with a focus on opposing authoritarian regimes through legal and moral means.
  • In the war in Ukraine, Putin's objectives are unclear, but the conflict has shifted to a war of attrition where Russia's war economy plays a significant role.
  • The war in Ukraine has become a successful business and social mobility plan for the Russian elite and lower classes.
  • The Biden administration's response to the war in Ukraine has led to significant victories in terms of rallying Western support and humiliating Russia.
  • A potential armistice in Fall 2022 offered favorable terms to Ukraine, but negotiations did not lead to a resolution.

17:52

"Ukraine's Peace: Challenges and Strategies Ahead"

  • The piece by Sergey Renko and Sam Cherup published last week in Foreign Affairs is highly praised for its depth and analysis.
  • The fall 2022 part of the argument, not yet fully reported, involves Putin demanding Ukrainian legal recognition of Russia's annexations, territorial extensions, and limitations on joining international organizations.
  • Winning the war in Ukraine involves more than regaining territory occupied by Russia; it requires breaking Russia's will to fight.
  • A successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in summer 2023 could have extended the front, posing challenges in winning the peace.
  • Winning the peace for Ukraine involves stopping destruction without conceding sovereignty or other demands.
  • The Biden Administration possibly had internal debates on Ukraine but lacked pressure on Ukraine to make a deal.
  • The potential return of Donald Trump could impact the trajectory of the war in Ukraine and US-Russia relations.
  • Predicting Trump's actions is challenging, highlighting the need for clear foreign policy communication to the American people.
  • The essay in Foreign Affairs explores five plausible scenarios for Russia's future, including a strong Russia dominant in its region, which is deemed fanciful due to Russia's challenges.
  • Russia's self-understanding as a special civilization faces obstacles like dependence on China, lack of soft power, and burned bridges with the West, making the desired future unrealistic.

36:08

France and Russia: Democratic Consolidation and Relations

  • France's democratic consolidation involved extensive institution-building, including an impartial professional Judiciary, Civil Service, a genuine legislature, and a competitive party system.
  • The process of building a democratic system in France took a considerable amount of time and effort.
  • Comparisons between France and Russia are drawn, highlighting similarities and discussing the potential scenario of Russia following a similar path.
  • Russia's current stance as a pole in the multi-polar world, while increasingly dependent on China, is noted.
  • The potential scenario of Russia becoming like North Korea, repressive and isolated but armed with nuclear weapons, is considered.
  • The dynamics of Russia and China's relationship, with China wary of excessive Russian dependence, are discussed.
  • The importance of Western fortification and the impact of Russia and China's actions on strengthening the West are emphasized.
  • The necessity for a balanced approach in Western-Russian relations, acknowledging Russia's non-Western identity while fostering beneficial relationships, is highlighted.
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