A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Global Warming
Hillsdale College・2 minutes read
Dr. Hayward discusses his views on climate change, highlighting errors in climate models and questioning the credibility of climate science predictions. He also criticizes proposed emission reduction targets, emphasizing the challenges in meeting them and the uncertainties in climate science.
Insights
- Dr. Hayward critiques climate change predictions, highlighting flaws in IPCC models, the challenge of evaluating climate models accurately, and the lack of short-term predictions' reliability.
- The text emphasizes the complexity and skepticism surrounding climate science, including debates on climate sensitivity, doubts about emission reduction feasibility, and the struggle to disentangle science from politics in policy decisions.
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Recent questions
What does Dr. Hayward discuss in his speech?
Dr. Hayward discusses his experiences at universities, views on climate change, and challenges in evaluating climate models.
What are some possible explanations for the pause in climate change?
Possible explanations for the pause in climate change include western Pacific wind patterns, aerosols, and solar variation.
What is the proposed emissions target for the US by 2050?
The proposed emissions target for the US by 2050 is an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions.
What sectors contribute to CO2 emissions in the US?
The US emissions are divided into residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors.
What challenges do environmentalists face in regulating emissions?
Environmentalists face challenges due to the revival of oil and gas production and the need for more stringent regulations.
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Summary
00:00
Climate Change Skepticism: A Critical Analysis
- Dr. Hayward discusses his experiences at various universities, including Yale and the University of Colorado at Boulder.
- He humorously describes his time as a conservative at Boulder, highlighting the environmentalist culture.
- Dr. Hayward expresses his views on climate change, comparing it to prohibition and discussing the authoritarian nature of the environmental movement.
- The title of his speech is "A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Global Warming," where he discusses three unexpected events related to global warming.
- He talks about the pause in global warming despite rising greenhouse gases and the failure of climate models to predict this.
- Dr. Hayward criticizes the IPCC's climate models, pointing out significant errors and uncertainties, particularly regarding clouds and water vapor.
- He quotes parts of the IPCC report, highlighting the admission of errors in cloud simulations and the inability to directly evaluate climate models.
- The discussion delves into the challenges of evaluating climate models and the lack of accurate predictions in the short term.
- Dr. Hayward questions the credibility of climate science predictions and emphasizes the need for caution in trusting climate models.
- He concludes by questioning the validity of climate science's ability to predict the future based on their struggles to understand past climate patterns.
13:46
Climate Change Theories and Doubts Explained
- Some theories suggest climate change is not going into the deep ocean due to lack of data.
- Possible explanations for the pause in climate change include western Pacific wind patterns, aerosols, and solar variation.
- There are around 57 possible explanations for the pause in climate change.
- The crisis in climate science is leading to doubts about climate sensitivity.
- Studies show that climate sensitivity has been overestimated.
- The claim that 97% of scientists believe in climate change is misleading.
- A study by John Cook found that only a third of scientists expressed an opinion on human-caused global warming.
- The proposed 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 is unrealistic.
- The last time the US emitted a billion tons of carbon dioxide was around 1910.
- Achieving the proposed emissions target would require each person in the US to lower their emissions to 2.5 tons per capita, a level seen in impoverished countries.
27:04
Challenges in Meeting Emission Targets in U.S.
- France and Switzerland have low greenhouse gas emissions due to their compact size and short distances for transportation of goods.
- Despite their green policies, France and Switzerland have per capita emissions of 6.5 tons, exceeding environmentalist targets.
- The U.S. Department of Energy divides the country's emissions into four sectors: residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation.
- The household sector alone emits 1.2 billion tons of CO2, surpassing the target for the entire country in 2050.
- Natural gas use in houses already emits 237 million tons of CO2, exceeding the 2050 target for the household sector.
- Energy projections suggest a significant increase in residential energy use by 2030, making meeting emission targets challenging.
- Transitioning to renewable energy sources like wind and solar is costly and not scalable to meet national or global needs.
- The Obama administration plans to regulate the electricity sector in the U.S., with different states having varying targets based on their energy profiles.
- The EPA's plan involves a menu of options for states to reduce emissions, potentially leading to a wealth transfer between states.
- The EPA predicts extensive and rapid changes in the power sector, aiming to regulate the electricity grid and act as a federal public utility commission.
40:08
State Plans for EPA Emission Targets
- States must submit a plan within a year to meet EPA targets.
- State environmental departments lack jurisdiction over electricity grids.
- Public utilities commissions and inter-agency task forces will be involved.
- Some states may reject EPA regulations, leading to potential legal challenges.
- The target is a 30% reduction in emissions from the electric power sector.
- EPA claims benefits like reducing ozone and particulate pollution.
- EPA regulations do not claim to impact climate change.
- Climate models suggest a minimal temperature change from EPA plans.
- Environmentalists aim to increase EPA authority for more stringent regulations.
- Environmentalists face challenges due to the revival of oil and gas production.
51:28
Climate science uncertainties and controversies revealed.
- Scientists analyzed data and found it reliable only up to 400 years ago, indicating uncertainty before that period.
- Emails revealed doubts and limitations in climate research, leading to articles exposing internal criticisms.
- Michael Mann is involved in a lawsuit against National Review and Mark Steyn, raising questions about the validity of the legal action.
- The IPCC included a controversial statement in their 2001 report last minute, causing discontent among researchers.
- Science should describe phenomena, not dictate policy decisions, as seen in the case of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Project.
- Climate scientists struggle to separate science from politics, with many admitting their limitations in public policy analysis.
- Climate change debates often involve contradictory evidence, such as melting ice floes and record snowfall in different regions.
- Various theories, including solar irradiation and oceanic oscillations, challenge the predominant view of carbon dioxide as the main climate change driver.
