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Why people believe weird things | Michael Shermer

TED・2 minutes read

Michael Shermer critiques the scientific validity of the Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod, emphasizing its 50% success rate as no better than chance, while discussing the importance of accurate scientific inquiry and cognitive biases in interpreting phenomena. He also highlights rising average IQ scores and the role of clear communication in science, illustrated by an anecdote involving singer Katie Melua and physicist Simon Singh.

Insights

  • Michael Shermer emphasizes the importance of critical thinking and scientific inquiry, highlighting the dangers of misinformation and cognitive biases that lead individuals to perceive patterns and meanings in random occurrences, such as the flawed Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod, which has no reliable scientific basis for detecting marijuana.
  • Shermer also discusses the historical evolution of scientific understanding, illustrating how advancements in theory and observation, as seen in Galileo's work and later contributions by Christiaan Huygens, have shaped our comprehension of the universe, while also noting the trend of increasing average IQ scores, which suggests a gradual rise in collective intelligence over time.

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Recent questions

  • What is a dowser rod used for?

    A dowser rod is a tool claimed to detect underground water or minerals, often used in dowsing, a practice that lacks scientific support. Proponents believe that the rod will move or tilt when it is over a source of water or other materials. However, scientific investigations have shown that the effectiveness of dowsing is no better than chance, as demonstrated in controlled experiments where dowsers failed to consistently identify the presence of substances like marijuana. The dowser rod's popularity persists in some circles, despite its dubious validity, highlighting the broader issue of belief in unproven methods.

  • How does intelligence change over time?

    Intelligence, as measured by IQ scores, has shown a consistent increase over the decades, with average scores rising by approximately three points every ten years. This phenomenon, often referred to as the Flynn effect, suggests that various factors, including improved education, nutrition, and access to information, may contribute to this trend. The implications of rising intelligence are significant, as they challenge previous assumptions about cognitive abilities and suggest that societal advancements can enhance overall intellectual capacity. Understanding these changes is crucial for addressing educational and social policies in a rapidly evolving world.

  • What is the significance of scientific inquiry?

    Scientific inquiry is a fundamental process that emphasizes the importance of questioning, testing, and seeking natural explanations for phenomena rather than accepting extraordinary claims without evidence. This method is likened to plumbing, where understanding the underlying systems is essential for effective problem-solving. By fostering a mindset of inquiry, individuals can better navigate misinformation and develop critical thinking skills. The emphasis on scientific inquiry encourages a culture of skepticism and curiosity, which is vital for advancing knowledge and addressing complex challenges in society.

  • Why do people see patterns in randomness?

    Humans have an innate tendency to recognize patterns, a trait that has evolved over time for survival. This cognitive bias can lead individuals to perceive meaningful shapes or images in random stimuli, such as seeing faces in clouds or interpreting natural formations as religious icons. This phenomenon, known as pareidolia, illustrates how our brains are wired to seek familiar patterns, even when none exist. Such misinterpretations can result in widespread beliefs in phenomena like the "face on Mars," highlighting the need for critical analysis of our perceptions and the importance of scientific reasoning in understanding the world.

  • How far is the observable universe?

    The observable universe is estimated to be about 13.7 billion light years from its edge, a measurement that reflects the vastness of space and the limits of our observational capabilities. This distance is determined through various astronomical methods, including the study of cosmic microwave background radiation and the expansion of the universe. The reliability of this measurement is supported by well-defined error bars, indicating a strong consensus among scientists. Understanding the scale of the observable universe not only fascinates us but also underscores the importance of accurate scientific communication in conveying complex concepts to the public.

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Summary

00:00

Skepticism and Science in a Misguided World

  • Michael Shermer, director of the Skeptics Society and publisher of "Skeptic" magazine, investigates claims related to paranormal phenomena, pseudo-science, and various fringe beliefs, emphasizing the prevalence of misinformation in society.
  • Shermer critiques the Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod, a device sold for $900 to high school administrators for detecting marijuana in lockers, highlighting its lack of scientific validity as it merely tilts towards lockers without reliable results.
  • In a controlled experiment, the dowser rod was tested against two opaque boxes—one containing THC marijuana and the other empty—resulting in a 50% success rate, equivalent to random chance, illustrating how people often remember successful hits while ignoring misses.
  • The current issue of "Skeptic" magazine focuses on the theme of intelligence, revealing that average IQ scores have increased by three points every decade, suggesting a trend of rising intelligence in the population.
  • Shermer argues that science should be viewed as a method of inquiry rather than a static entity, comparing it to plumbing, and emphasizes the importance of seeking natural explanations for phenomena rather than jumping to extraordinary conclusions.
  • He uses humor to illustrate the absurdity of believing in extraterrestrial crop circles, suggesting that it is more plausible that such phenomena are created by humans using tools like Photoshop rather than alien intervention.
  • Shermer discusses the historical context of scientific discovery, referencing Galileo's observations of Saturn, which were hindered by a lack of theoretical understanding and poor data quality, until Christiaan Huygens provided a clearer theory and better observations in 1655.
  • He highlights cognitive biases that lead people to see patterns where none exist, such as the "face on Mars" phenomenon, and discusses how humans are evolutionarily predisposed to recognize faces, which can lead to misinterpretations of random shapes.
  • Shermer shares anecdotes about religious iconography appearing in everyday objects, such as a cheese sandwich resembling the Virgin Mary, emphasizing how people project meaning onto random patterns due to their pattern-seeking nature.
  • He concludes with a positive note about singer Katie Melua, who wrote a song referencing astronomical distances, and how physicist Simon Singh corrected her on the exact distance to the edge of the observable universe, demonstrating the importance of accurate scientific communication.

13:08

Universe Size and Personal Connection Explained

  • The observable universe is estimated to be 13.7 billion light years from its edge, with well-defined error bars indicating the reliability of this measurement.
  • The speaker expresses a personal prediction of always being with the audience, accompanied by laughter and applause.
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