What are the top risks for the US in 2024?

Political division, misinformation, and election vulnerabilities.

What international conflicts are escalating in 2024?

Israel-Hamas, Russia-Ukraine, and global isolation.

Risk of partition, territorial integrity, and NATO alliance.

Negative impacts, governance challenges, and misuse risks.

Protectionism, high-tech capabilities, and critical minerals.

The United States is facing internal crises due to a divided political system, potential re-election of Trump, and risks to free and fair elections, with concerns about misinformation impacting the electoral process.
International conflicts like the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russia-Ukraine tensions, and the inability to reach a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict present significant challenges in 2024, emphasizing the need for effective governance and diplomacy to address escalating conflicts and political divisions.

What are the top risks for the US in 2024?
Political division, misinformation, and election vulnerabilities.
What international conflicts are escalating in 2024?
Israel-Hamas, Russia-Ukraine, and global isolation.
What challenges does Ukraine face in 2024?
Risk of partition, territorial integrity, and NATO alliance.
What are the concerns regarding AI in 2024?
Negative impacts, governance challenges, and misuse risks.
What is the tech challenge governments face in 2024?
Protectionism, high-tech capabilities, and critical minerals.

00:00

The year is 2024, and there is a sense of nervous anticipation at TED due to global events like wars and upcoming elections.
Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO media, discusses the Top Risks for 2024, focusing on the United States' internal crisis.
The US faces challenges with a divided political system, potential re-election of Trump, and risks to free and fair elections.
Concerns arise about misinformation impacting the US election, with vulnerabilities in the political system.
Both Biden and Trump are seen as unable to bridge the political divide in the US effectively.
International conflicts, including Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine, are escalating with no diplomatic resolutions in sight.
Israel-Hamas conflict is expected to escalate further, involving Hezbollah, Houthis, and radicalization of Palestinians.
The US's support for Israel in the conflict isolates them globally and poses challenges for Biden's re-election.
The possibility of a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains distant due to security concerns and lack of effective governance.
The complex web of international conflicts and political divisions presents unprecedented challenges in 2024.

15:38

Israelis have the capacity and military advantage with Iron Dome, while Palestinians lack the ability to defend themselves effectively.
A two-state solution is not feasible in 2024 due to the Palestinians' inability to govern and defend themselves.
Ukraine faces the risk of being partitioned in 2024, with the inability to regain occupied land from Russia.
The trajectory of the war in Ukraine is at a turning point, with potential consequences for territorial integrity and NATO alliance.
Ukraine can still win through international support and integration, despite being de facto partitioned.
Russia will maintain control of a strip of Ukrainian territory, facing long-term consequences and isolation.
AI is seen as a transformative technology with potential for productivity gains and efficiency across various sectors.
Challenges arise from negative externalities of AI, requiring governance to address societal stability.
The focus on AI should include considerations for common good and potential misuse by bad actors.
The negative impacts of AI must be accounted for and addressed to prevent destabilization of society.

30:08

Disinformation is used to undermine democracy, with AI tools in the hands of bad actors posing risks like malware, viruses, and lethal autonomous weapons.
The rapid advancement of AI, three times faster than Moore's Law, poses challenges for governance, especially in elections like the US election.
Governance is crucial but slower than technological advancements, with the EU's AI Act and the US executive order attempting to regulate AI.
Governance aims to identify critical actors, facilitate discussions, and enable collective and swift responses to crises in the AI sector.
The tech challenge of 2024 involves governments potentially turning protectionist regarding minerals essential for building technology.
Tensions between the US and China revolve around high-tech capabilities, with export controls on semiconductors and critical minerals.
The fight for critical minerals impacts the transition to post-carbon energy, with governments implementing industrial policies and subsidies.
The interconnected nature of global issues necessitates connecting with loved ones to make a difference, as highlighted in a report by Ian.
Ian emphasizes the importance of stewardship and unity in facing the challenges of 2024, urging leaders to act responsibly and consider the greater good.