"The Great Transformation" - TAQA 20th Anniversary Celebration / Dhahran, Saudi Arabia [16 Oct 2023]
Tony Seba・2 minutes read
Tony CBA discusses historical disruptions, current and future trends, and the impact of phase change disruptions on various industries, predicting significant changes in transportation, energy, and food production by 2030, including the dominance of electric vehicles and the collapse of the dairy industry due to precision fermentation. These disruptions will lead to a global transformation towards superabundance and near-zero costs in key areas, offering opportunities for those who adapt to the changing landscape.
Insights
- Disruptions occur cyclically every 10 to 15 years across various sectors, often overlooked even by experts who have previously caused disruptions themselves. The concept of phase change disruptions, triggered by technological convergence, leads to the creation of entirely new systems with new rules, such as the rise of electric vehicles and solar energy as dominant forces in transportation and energy by 2030.
- Precision fermentation, exemplified by Genentech's insulin production, is poised to revolutionize industries like dairy, offering more resource-efficient and cost-effective solutions that could potentially lead to the collapse of traditional systems. This innovation not only promises economic benefits but also environmental advantages, paving the way for significant decarbonization and a shift towards net negative carbon emissions by 2040, showcasing the transformative power of disruptive technologies in various sectors.
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Recent questions
What does Tony CBA specialize in?
Thought leadership, entrepreneurship, and disruptive innovations.
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Summary
00:00
"Future Disruptions: Tony CBA's Insights"
- Tony CBA is a world-renowned thought leader, author, speaker, educator, and entrepreneur.
- He discusses historical disruptions, like the shift from horses to cars in New York City in 1900.
- Disruptions occur every 10 to 15 years across various sectors, such as corn, coal, and insulin.
- Experts often overlook disruptions, even those who previously disrupted industries.
- Tony explains the concept of phase change disruptions and how they lead to new systems.
- Convergence of technologies triggers disruptions, like the rise of electric vehicles around 2020.
- Cost curves, like the decreasing cost of lithium-ion batteries, play a crucial role in disruptions.
- The incumbent mindset hinders recognizing disruptions, leading to missed opportunities.
- Phase change disruptions, like the shift to electric vehicles, create entirely new systems with new rules.
- Tony predicts significant disruptions in transportation and energy, with electric vehicles becoming dominant by 2030 and solar energy becoming the cheapest energy source globally.
20:20
"Disruptive Innovations Transforming Energy, Food, Industries"
- In Alaska and Germany, the cheapest energy system works without the need for seasonal storage or hydrogen, requiring only 1-5 days of battery storage due to a phase change transformation into a new system.
- A new property called the clean energy U curve allows for a trade-off between energy storage and generation, resulting in superpower generation that is 2-5 times more powerful than existing systems, offering disruptive economics with a 20% increase in investment yielding a 200% increase in energy return.
- Precision fermentation, developed by Genentech, revolutionized insulin production, replacing animal insulin with human insulin within 13 years, leading to the disruption of the dairy industry through the production of dairy proteins via fermentation.
- Precision fermentation proteins are set to disrupt the dairy industry economically, with the cost of precision fermentation decreasing significantly, potentially leading to the collapse of the dairy industry by 2025.
- Precision fermentation is significantly more resource-efficient than livestock, requiring 1% of the land to produce the same amount as livestock, with the potential to decarbonize 90% of the economy by 2035 and reach a net negative carbon emission by 2040.
- The ongoing phase change disruptions in food, energy, transport, information technology, and materials industries are set to lead to a global transformation, with the potential for superabundance and near-zero costs in intelligence, labor, energy, transport, and food, offering opportunities for those who understand and adapt to these disruptions.
