Putin and the Presidents: Timothy Snyder (interview) | FRONTLINE

FRONTLINE PBS | Official・2 minutes read

The Biden Administration faced intelligence of Putin's intent to invade Ukraine, highlighting the principle of non-invasion and American foreign policy coherence. Putin's belief that Ukraine lacked independent existence fueled his invasion, leading to a three-day war expectation.

Insights

Putin's invasion of Ukraine was driven by a false belief that Ukraine lacked independent existence, rooted in historical conspiracies against the country, leading to a three-day war expectation.
The US missed opportunities to support Ukraine earlier, with debates on arming the country dragging on for years, highlighting a need for swift action to prevent further conflict and emphasizing the importance of backing the right country to win the war.

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Recent questions

Why did Putin invade Ukraine?
Misbelief in Ukraine's statehood and historical conspiracies.
How did the US respond to the Ukraine crisis?
Persuaded others, supported Ukraine with arms, highlighted implications.
What was Putin's perception of American democracy?
Threat to his regime, illusion of Russian democracy.
How did Russia manipulate Western perceptions during the Ukraine crisis?
Exploited vulnerabilities, lack of preparedness, understanding of tactics.
What were the implications of the war in Ukraine?
Civilian deaths, political repercussions, potential power shift.

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Summary

00:00

"Biden faces Putin's Ukraine invasion threat"

In late 2021, the Biden Administration faced intelligence indicating Putin's intent to invade Ukraine, a significant neighbor on NATO and EU borders.
The stakes involved the principle of countries not invading others without cause, the international legal framework, and the coherence of American foreign policy.
Biden's administration worked to persuade others of the impending invasion, supported Ukraine with arms, and highlighted the war's implications.
Putin's invasion stemmed from a false belief that Ukraine lacked independent existence, leading to a three-day war expectation.
Putin's worldview, denying Ukraine's statehood, fueled his invasion plans, rooted in historical conspiracies against Ukraine.
Russians' misperception of American focus on Russia contrasts with reality, where Americans only engage when necessary.
The belief in democracy's inevitability post-Cold War was flawed, requiring active efforts for democracy's establishment, not just economic changes.
Putin's manipulation of American hubris about democracy and capitalism as inevitable paths allowed him to present an alternative ideology.
Putin's consistent denial of Ukraine's legitimacy as a country evolved into a threat perception as Ukraine progressed compared to Russia.
Putin's shift from a rule of law state to a top oligarch led to a focus on foreign policy spectacle, with the West as a convenient enemy to maintain power domestically.

14:04

Putin's Domestic Policy Drives Anti-US Actions

Putin's turn against the United States is not due to American policy but stems from his domestic policy failures and the need for a permanent spectacle.
American foreign policy, including the Iraq War, has played a role in global events, but Putin's actions are primarily driven by his domestic needs.
Putin's system relies on turning democracy into a ritual to legitimize his power, using elections as a facade rather than genuine democratic processes.
Putin perceives American discussions on democracy as a threat to his regime, aiming to maintain the illusion of Russian democracy while discrediting Western electoral practices.
The Obama Administration misunderstood Russia's intentions and the need for a convenient foreign policy enemy to maintain domestic control.
The reset in relations with Russia was doomed to fail as it did not address the fundamental issues within Russia's domestic politics.
Russia's strategy involves creating chaos in other countries to distract from its own internal problems and maintain power.
The Obama Administration's approach to democracy promotion was criticized for its hubris and failure to understand Russia's true intentions.
Putin's military interventions in Georgia and Ukraine sent a clear message that he was willing to use force in neighboring countries to achieve his goals.
Russia's ability to manipulate Western perceptions during the Ukraine crisis highlighted the West's lack of preparedness and understanding of Russian tactics.

27:40

Russian Social Media Tactics Influence US Politics

Russians outsmarted the US by exploiting vulnerabilities on social media during the invasion of Ukraine in 2014.
The US was unable to address the invasion due to being entangled in discussions created by the Russians.
Ukrainians in 2022 are teaching the US how to handle similar situations through their social media approach.
The US failed to learn from the Russian propaganda tactics used in 2014 during the 2016 presidential election interference.
The US missed the opportunity to arm Ukrainians in 2014, which could have prevented further conflict.
The US debated sending weapons to Ukraine for years, missing the chance to better support the country.
Putin learned from the minimal US reaction to the invasion of Ukraine that such actions could work if handled properly.
The Russian propaganda war in 2016 exploited weaknesses in the American political mind, influencing the election.
Russia invaded Ukraine to prevent it from becoming a rule of law state and joining the European Union, threatening Putin's regime.
Putin's view of democracy as a joke was normalized by Trump's presidency, benefiting Russia's political narrative.

41:25

"Trump, Putin, Ukraine: Crisis and Conflict"

Trump's existence and behavior were seen as beneficial to Putin's regime, potentially leading to America pulling out of NATO and separating from the European Union.
January 6th was celebrated by Russia as a coup attempt, showcasing American vulnerabilities and potentially leading to a war in Ukraine.
Putin's view of the Soviet Union's collapse is based on a belief in American power, leading to his own displays of strength like the invasion of Ukraine.
Trump's approach to Ukraine was personalized, focusing on his relationship with Putin and disregarding Ukrainian interests.
Corruption in Ukraine was exaggerated by Russian propaganda to paint the country as a failed state, undermining its legitimacy.
The Biden Administration recognized the impending crisis in Ukraine and worked towards forming a coalition to address the situation.
The war in Ukraine was a result of Ukraine's transformation and Putin's evolving beliefs about Russia's mission and his personal legacy.
Putin's misunderstanding of Western democracies led to a miscalculation of the international response to his invasion of Ukraine.
Biden's use of strong language like "genocide" and calling Putin a war criminal signifies a shift towards acknowledging past mistakes and adopting a more direct approach.
Despite Biden's strong statements, the Russian media downplayed their significance, preferring to control the narrative themselves.

55:15

"Ukraine civilian deaths threaten Putin's power"

The chief danger of the war lies in the civilian deaths in Ukraine under Russian occupation, with the potential for political repercussions in Russia, possibly leading to Putin losing power.
It is crucial for the United States to focus on deterring nuclear weapon use, supporting Ukraine to end the war swiftly by Ukrainian victory, and allowing Russia to handle its internal affairs post-war, emphasizing the importance of the right country winning the war.

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