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Just How Likely Is A Global Nuclear War? - Annie Jacobsen

Chris Williamson・47 minutes read

Approximately 12,500 nuclear weapons exist globally among nine nuclear-armed nations, with transparency treaties in place to prevent underreporting. The U.S. nuclear Triad consists of silos, submarines, and bombers, each serving a crucial role in nuclear strategy and response.

Insights

  • Approximately 12,500 nuclear weapons exist globally, held by nine nations, including the U.S., Russia, and North Korea, with varying estimates on North Korea's arsenal.
  • The U.S. nuclear Triad, consisting of land-based silos, submarines, and bombers, plays a critical role in ensuring a swift response to nuclear threats, with bombers being the only part that can be recalled post-launch, highlighting the complexity and urgency of nuclear warfare strategies.

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Recent questions

  • How many nuclear-armed nations exist?

    Nine

  • What is the U.S. nuclear Triad composed of?

    Land-based silos, submarines, bombers

  • Who has the authority to launch nuclear weapons?

    President

  • What is the purpose of the policy "launch on warning"?

    Immediate nuclear response to surprise attack

  • What are the potential targets in a nuclear attack?

    Major cities, minor cities, airports, industrial bases

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Summary

00:00

Global Nuclear Weapons: Facts and Risks

  • Approximately 12,500 nuclear weapons exist globally, with the data sourced from the Federation of American Scientists' Nuclear Notebook group led by Hans Christensen.
  • Nine nuclear-armed nations include Russia, America, UK, France, India, Pakistan, China, North Korea, Israel, and Australia.
  • Transparency and inspection treaties aim to prevent underreporting of nuclear weapons by nations.
  • North Korea's nuclear arsenal estimates vary, with the CIA suggesting 50 weapons while NGOs propose up to 130.
  • The U.S. nuclear Triad comprises land-based silos, submarine forces, and bomber forces.
  • 400 underground silos, 14 nuclear-armed submarines, and 66 bombers constitute the U.S. nuclear Triad.
  • Bombers are the only part of the Triad that can be recalled after launch, making them crucial in initial strikes.
  • Submarines are stealthy, with Russian and Chinese submarines approaching U.S. coasts undetected.
  • A mistaken nuclear war could result from misunderstandings, miscalculations, or rogue launches by a "madman" with nuclear weapons.
  • The sequence of events post-nuclear launch involves space-based systems detecting ballistic missile launches, transmitting data to command centers in Cheyenne Mountain, the Pentagon, and Stratcom for rapid interpretation and response within seconds.

18:07

US Nuclear Response: Behind the Scenes

  • Three command centers with hundreds of thousands of personnel work 24/7 behind the scenes.
  • Former secretaries of defense confirm the President is promptly informed of critical issues.
  • Policy of "launch on warning" mandates immediate nuclear response to a surprise attack.
  • The theory behind this policy involves protecting nuclear silos from being targeted.
  • The decision to launch nuclear weapons rests solely with the President.
  • A former nuclear silo operative details the process of launching missiles.
  • Interceptor missiles are limited in number and effectiveness, with a success rate of 40-55%.
  • Washington DC is a primary target in a nuclear attack due to its leadership significance.
  • Major cities, minor cities, airports, and industrial bases are all potential nuclear targets.
  • Bunkers built in the 1950s are insufficient to withstand modern nuclear warheads.

35:56

"Thermonuclear Weapons: Power, Destruction, and Consequences"

  • Richard Garwin designed the first thermonuclear weapon at 24 years old, now aged 95.
  • The weapon was 10.4 megatons, equivalent to 1,000 Hiroshima bombs, exploding from one center point.
  • A 50 Megaton Russian weapon was a bomber, viewable online, causing terror.
  • The difference between atomic, hydrogen, and thermonuclear bombs explained.
  • A thermonuclear bomb uses an atomic bomb as a fuse, showcasing immense power.
  • Bombs can be deployed above ground or midair, affecting casualties differently.
  • The Hiroshima bomb's detonation height maximized casualties, a grim fact.
  • Ground detonation leads to radiation poisoning, making areas uninhabitable for centuries.
  • Effects of a one Megaton thermonuclear bomb detailed, including fire, destruction, and winds.
  • Nuclear winter follows a nuclear war, with fires creating soot blocking the sun for years, leading to global starvation and 5 billion deaths.

55:23

"North Korea's Nuclear Threat and Global Diplomacy"

  • Garwin, when asked about the most dangerous scenario, highlighted the threat of a madman with a nuclear arsenal starting a nuclear war, specifically referencing North Korea as a nation not adhering to the rules of nuclear warfare.
  • North Korea, unlike other nuclear-armed nations, conducts unannounced missile tests, launching around 100 missiles since January 2022, causing significant anxiety and potential misunderstandings among other countries.
  • The reckless behavior of North Korea, not following established nuclear war protocols, poses a serious risk of an unexpected attack, driven by a desire to display power and menace.
  • The Reagan reversal, inspired by the impact of a fictional nuclear war depiction, led to a significant reduction in global nuclear warheads through communication and diplomacy, emphasizing the importance of dialogue in reducing nuclear threats.
  • Despite skepticism, the belief in open communication and discussion on existential risks, like nuclear war, is seen as crucial in influencing powerful leaders to make positive changes and prevent catastrophic scenarios.
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