Is Messaging Aliens a Bad Idea?
Cool Worlds・2 minutes read
Modern SETI began in 1960 with Frank Drake listening for radio signals from distant stars, leading to the creation of METI in 1974; the debate around the risks and benefits of broadcasting messages to potential extraterrestrial civilizations continues. Game theory is applied to analyze the strategies in the METI debate, focusing on the balance between existence value and contact value, as well as the probabilities of reply and annihilation in potential interactions with alien societies.
Insights
- Frank Drake pioneered modern SETI in 1960, shifting from listening to broadcasting in 1974 to create METI, sparking controversy and calls for caution in messaging extraterrestrial civilizations.
- Game theory is applied to analyze the METI debate, focusing on the balance between existence value, contact value, reply probability, and annihilation probability, determining conditions for the success of METI proponents and exploring scenarios where declining civilizations may engage in METI for legacy purposes.
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Recent questions
What is METI and its controversy?
METI involves broadcasting messages to space.
What is the SETI paradox?
The SETI paradox questions the necessity of METI.
What are the concerns about METI?
Concerns include existential risks and unintended consequences.
How do proponents justify METI?
Proponents argue for controlled messaging and shaping perceptions.
What is the role of game theory in the METI debate?
Game theory analyzes strategies and potential outcomes.
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Summary
00:00
"Evolution of SETI: Listening to Broadcasting"
- Frank Drake initiated modern SETI in 1960 by listening for artificial radio transmissions from Tau Ceti and Epsilon Eridani using the Green Bank Observatory.
- Breakthrough Listen allocated $100 million to expand SETI projects.
- Drake and others transitioned from listening to broadcasting in 1974, creating METI, sending a message using prime numbers to a distant globular cluster.
- The Arecibo message was a technical demonstration, sparking controversy and calls for international consultation before further messaging.
- The SETI paradox questions the necessity of METI if no one else is transmitting signals.
- Detractors of METI argue for patience in listening before broadcasting messages into space.
- Concerns about existential risk from advanced civilizations prompt caution in METI efforts.
- METI proponents suggest that aliens likely already know of Earth's existence through technosignatures, advocating for controlled messaging to shape perceptions.
- METI is viewed as part of a continuum of astrobiological signaling, with proponents emphasizing its role in communication and potential benefits.
- Game theory is proposed as a way to analyze the various strategies in the METI debate, highlighting the complex interactions and potential outcomes between humanity and extraterrestrial civilizations.
15:07
"METI vs SETI: Calculating Contact Value"
- VX is the value gained by exterminating a competitor, akin to the benefit a corporation might receive from eliminating a rival.
- VE represents the value assigned to existence, with a negative sign indicating its potential extremity compared to other values.
- The discussion shifts to game theory, distinguishing between finite games focused on winning and infinite games aimed at maximizing outcomes.
- Strategies in the context of the SETI paradox are analyzed, discounting unattainable options and focusing on messaging versus broadcasting.
- Calculations are made to compare the expected payoffs of strategies SETI and METI, determining conditions for METI proponents to prevail in the debate.
- The argument for METI revolves around the ratio of existence value to contact value, and the ratio of reply probability to annihilation probability.
- Hypothetical scenarios are explored, suggesting that a declining civilization might engage in METI due to reduced existential value and a desire for legacy.
- An advanced civilization may find less value in making contact due to diminishing returns and extreme disparity, leading to a debate on the merits of METI.
