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How Not to Win the War, but the Peace - Stephen Kotkin | Endgame #174 (Luminaries)

Gita Wirjawan・44 minutes read

President Biden is meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping for high-stakes talks, with Stephen Kotkin involved in the conversation. Kotkin emphasizes the importance of understanding history, preparing for luck, and gaining empathy through international exposure.

Insights

  • History is emphasized as a critical tool for understanding change and shaping the future, advocating for a deeper study of history to empower agency and anticipate change, highlighting the lack of historical knowledge among young people and officials, and the high demand for history in government and private sectors.
  • Winning peace in Ukraine involves avoiding actions that could lead to future conflicts, such as ethnic cleansing or incentivizing Russian aggression, defining victory for Ukraine as joining the European Union and obtaining security guarantees to transform institutions and ensure security, and the complexity of the situation in Ukraine involves emotional dimensions and the need to carefully navigate various potential consequences.

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Recent questions

  • What is the focus of the high-stakes talks between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping?

    The high-stakes talks between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping focus on various geopolitical issues and the relationship between the two countries.

  • What influenced Stephen Kotkin's interest in history?

    Stephen Kotkin's interest in history was influenced by his mother's love for historical fiction and his personal experiences.

  • What does Kotkin emphasize about the importance of luck in success?

    Kotkin emphasizes the importance of being prepared to be lucky and seizing moments of good fortune while acknowledging the role of luck in success.

  • What is the speaker's perspective on the importance of historical knowledge?

    The speaker emphasizes the critical importance of historical knowledge among young people and officials, highlighting the demand for historical understanding in both government and private sectors.

  • What is the significance of the United States' financial investments in Asia?

    The United States has been a significant Asian power for a long time, with substantial financial investments in the region, particularly in Southeast Asia.

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Summary

00:00

Biden, Xi meeting with historian Kotkin

  • President Biden is meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping for high-stakes talks, their first in over a year.
  • Stephen Kotkin, a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, is involved in the conversation.
  • Kotkin is also a Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
  • Kotkin, a Princeton History Professor, has authored numerous books.
  • History can't predict the future but shows that the present won't last.
  • Winning peace in Ukraine requires being prepared to be lucky.
  • Kotkin's interest in history stemmed from his mother's love for historical fiction.
  • Initially focused on STEM, Kotkin shifted to history after a medical career setback.
  • Kotkin's journey into Russian history was influenced by his experiences in Prague and interactions with intellectuals like Michel Foucault.
  • Kotkin's accelerated Russian language learning led him to delve into Russian history and eventually become a professor at Princeton University.

17:00

Embracing Cultural Diversity: A Call for Understanding

  • The speaker had a series of fortunate events in their life, including studying Soviet stuff before Gorbachev and learning Russian in Leningrad.
  • They emphasize the importance of being ready to seize moments of good fortune and work hard, acknowledging the role of luck in success.
  • The speaker discusses the need for Americans to have a better understanding of Russia and other big countries, highlighting the self-absorption of large nations in their own stories.
  • The difference in assimilation approaches between America and Russia is explored, with Russia having a more diverse cultural makeup due to its history as an empire.
  • The importance of Americans experiencing and understanding different cultures is stressed, with the speaker advocating for more international exposure.
  • The speaker's children have embraced different cultures through their studies and travels, enhancing their understanding of America and the world.
  • The speaker's family engages in tourist travel to expose their children to different cultures, emphasizing the importance of resources in facilitating such experiences.
  • The speaker advocates for Americans, especially decision-makers, to immerse themselves in foreign cultures beyond luxury travel, to gain empathy and understanding.
  • The speaker highlights the lack of historical knowledge among young people and officials, emphasizing the high demand for history in government and private sectors.
  • History is portrayed as a tool for understanding change and shaping the future, with the speaker advocating for a deeper study of history to empower agency and anticipate change.

33:34

"Ukraine's Victory: Navigating Complex Geopolitical Realities"

  • Adolf Hitler, initially considered finished as a politician, later becomes Chancellor of Germany due to unforeseen circumstances and larger dynamics at play.
  • Economics, with its assumption of "everything else being equal," contrasts with geopolitics where nothing remains constant, leading to policy advice favoring economists until events like war or pandemics shift focus to geopolitics.
  • Wars are seen as miscalculations, with the focus on winning the peace rather than the war itself, as exemplified by the outcomes in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam.
  • Victory for Ukraine is defined by the recovery of occupied territory, war crimes tribunals, and reparations, but achieving this requires taking Moscow, making it an unattainable goal.
  • A better definition of victory for Ukraine involves joining the European Union and obtaining a security guarantee to transform institutions and ensure security.
  • Security guarantees for Ukraine involve promises to arm and enable self-defense, with the possibility of a treaty with the United States rather than NATO due to consensus challenges.
  • The potential return of Crimea to Ukraine is complex, with considerations of ethnic cleansing, insurgency, stability, and incentivizing Russian aggression.
  • Returning Crimea to Ukraine may have negative consequences, including potential ethnic cleansing, insurgency, and incentivizing Russian aggression.
  • Winning the peace in Ukraine involves avoiding actions that could lead to future conflicts, such as ethnic cleansing or incentivizing Russian aggression.
  • The complexity of the situation in Ukraine involves emotional dimensions and the need to carefully navigate various potential consequences.

50:47

US Pivot to Asia: Shifting Global Dynamics

  • The United States has been an Asian power for a long time with significant financial investments in Asia, including Southeast Asia.
  • The pivot to Asia aimed to shift resources from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific, leading to a closer alignment between Europe and the US on China policy.
  • The war in Ukraine revitalized transatlanticism, bringing the US and Europe closer on China policy due to China's support for Russia.
  • The West is an institutional term, not a geographic one, encompassing countries with shared values and institutions.
  • The US must approach China with self-confidence, leveraging the strength of friends and allies in negotiations.
  • The American World Order provides opportunities for others, emphasizing the importance of including friends and partners in negotiations.
  • Understanding the aspirations and challenges of different regions is crucial, refraining from solely viewing everything through the lens of US-China relations.
  • China's aspirations involve creating a world that benefits its authoritarian regime, potentially leveraging commercial relations for influence.
  • The terms of sharing the planet with China must prioritize reciprocity, openness, and genuine win-win situations to protect democratic values.
  • Maintaining sovereignty, institutions, and democratic principles while engaging in commercial ties with China is essential to prevent coercion and influence buying.
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