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How NATO & Russia are Preparing to Fight Total War

RealLifeLore・47 minutes read

The war in Ukraine has been ongoing for three years with no immediate end in sight, as Russia aims to increase troop levels to 600,000 and expand territorial control. European NATO states face the choice of increasing defense spending to counter Russian rearmament or risking a potential invasion of the Baltic states.

Insights

  • Russia's aggressive military expansion, including plans to increase troop levels in Ukraine to over 600,000 and potential annexations, poses a significant threat to regional stability and Ukraine's sovereignty.
  • European NATO states face a crucial decision between significantly increasing defense spending to counter Russian rearmament or risking potential Russian invasions of Baltic states, highlighting the delicate balance between financial commitments and security concerns in the region.

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Recent questions

  • What is the current situation in Ukraine?

    The war in Ukraine has been ongoing for three years with no immediate end in sight. Ukraine has largely defeated the Russian Navy at sea, but the conflict on land is shifting against Kiev. In February 2024, the Russians captured the city of Divka, a suburb of Donetsk, with a pre-war population of over 31,000.

  • What are Russia's plans for Ukraine?

    Russia plans to increase troop levels in Ukraine to around 600,000, surpassing the US presence in Vietnam during the peak of the war. Russia aims to expand its territorial control in Ukraine, including annexing four Ukrainian provinces and potentially demanding more cities and provinces. Russia's proposed peace agreement for Ukraine includes making it a permanently neutral state, limiting its military capabilities, and potentially annexing more territories.

  • What are the potential targets after Ukraine for Russia?

    Russia's potential target after Ukraine is Moldova, with a small population of around 2.5 million, mostly Romanian, and a standing army of 6,500 personnel. Russia may follow a playbook seen in Ukraine and Georgia by recognizing Transnistria's independence, leading to a Russian occupation of Moldova. Moldova's president fears Russian occupation and the US has increased defense assistance to Moldova significantly.

  • How are the Baltic states involved in the conflict?

    The Baltic states have a troubled history with Russia, with large Russian minorities, potentially making them future targets for Russian expansion. Estonia and Latvia have significant Russian populations due to Soviet colonization, raising concerns of potential Russian intervention. Russian strategy involves advancing towards major ethnic Russian majority cities like Narva in Estonia and Daugavpils in Latvia.

  • What is the EU doing to prepare for potential Russian aggression?

    European preparations for a potential Russian invasion include military conscription, construction of the Baltic defense line, and increased military spending. Poland aims to build the largest conventional ground force in Europe, doubling its military size and acquiring significant military hardware to defend the Sui Gap choke point. European NATO states are urged to increase defense spending to at least 3% of GDP by 2030 to counter Russian rearmament and potential US withdrawal from NATO.

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Summary

00:00

"Russia's Aggressive Expansion in Ukraine Continues"

  • The war in Ukraine has been ongoing for three years with no immediate end in sight.
  • Ukraine has largely defeated the Russian Navy at sea, but the conflict on land is shifting against Kiev.
  • In February 2024, the Russians captured the city of Divka, a suburb of Donetsk, with a pre-war population of over 31,000.
  • Vladimir Putin secured his reelection in Russia for a fifth term, extending his rule until at least 2030.
  • Russia plans to increase troop levels in Ukraine to around 600,000, surpassing the US presence in Vietnam during the peak of the war.
  • Russia's military budget for 2024 is 7.1% of the nation's GDP, a significant increase from the previous year.
  • Russia is producing a large number of tanks, artillery rounds, and long-range missiles, surpassing the production levels of the US and European NATO allies.
  • Ukraine is facing shortages of ammunition and manpower, with an average age of 43 for soldiers on the front lines.
  • Russia aims to expand its territorial control in Ukraine, including annexing four Ukrainian provinces and potentially demanding more cities and provinces.
  • Russia's proposed peace agreement for Ukraine includes making it a permanently neutral state, limiting its military capabilities, and potentially annexing more territories.

13:24

Russian Expansion Threatens Moldova and Baltic States

  • Russia's potential target after Ukraine is Moldova, with a small population of around 2.5 million, mostly Romanian, and a standing army of 6,500 personnel.
  • Russia may follow a playbook seen in Ukraine and Georgia by recognizing Transnistria's independence, leading to a Russian occupation of Moldova.
  • Moldova's president fears Russian occupation and the US has increased defense assistance to Moldova significantly.
  • France has signed a defense cooperation agreement with Moldova, including military training and intelligence sharing.
  • Russia's strategy includes absorbing Belarus into a Union state by 2030, with a focus on russification and military integration.
  • The Baltic states have a troubled history with Russia, with large Russian minorities, potentially making them future targets for Russian expansion.
  • Estonia and Latvia have significant Russian populations due to Soviet colonization, raising concerns of potential Russian intervention.
  • NATO's Article 5 allows for collective defense, but the wording leaves room for varying responses from member states.
  • Russia could test NATO's solidarity by conducting limited invasions in the Baltic states, potentially eroding NATO's credibility.
  • A full-scale Russian invasion of the Baltic states could be swift due to their small size and surrounded geography, posing a significant threat.

26:50

Russian Strategy: Baltic States Invasion Implications

  • Russian strategy involves advancing towards major ethnic Russian majority cities like Narva in Estonia and Daugavpils in Latvia.
  • The Russian Baltic Fleet aims to secure control over the sparsely populated Estonian island of Hiiumaa to establish military outposts with A2/AD weapon systems.
  • Russian ground troops plan to seize the strategic Sui Gap, the only land connection between the Baltic states and Poland.
  • The Rand Corporation simulations suggest Russian tanks could reach Estonian and Latvian capitals within 36 to 60 hours of an invasion.
  • The potential Russian occupation of the Baltic states could lead to a NATO-Russia confrontation with nuclear implications.
  • The EU's Article 42.7 Mutual defense Clause could be triggered by a Russian attack on the Baltic states, but the EU's military capabilities are significantly weaker than NATO's.
  • Estimates suggest a Russian assault on the Baltic states could occur within the next 3 to 8 years, aligning with Russia's goals in Ukraine and China's potential invasion of Taiwan.
  • European countries have increased defense spending to meet NATO's 2% GDP guideline, but decades of under-spending have left significant gaps in military stockpiles.
  • European preparations for a potential Russian invasion include military conscription, construction of the Baltic defense line, and increased military spending.
  • Poland aims to build the largest conventional ground force in Europe, doubling its military size and acquiring significant military hardware to defend the Sui Gap choke point.

40:20

European NATO States Urged to Increase Defense Spending

  • European NATO states are urged to increase defense spending to at least 3% of GDP by 2030 to counter Russian rearmament and potential US withdrawal from NATO.
  • The choice for European NATO states lies between raising defense spending, leading to higher taxes or austerity measures, or risking Russian invasion of Baltic states.
  • Nuclear deterrence may not be sufficient to deter Russian aggression, raising questions about France and the UK's willingness to use their nuclear arsenals to protect the Baltic states.
  • European deterrence against Russian invasion requires a strong conventional military force to prevent a repeat of historical conflicts in the 1930s.
  • Western nations have provided significant financial and military aid to Ukraine, with a major 2023 counteroffensive falling short of its goals against Russian defenses.
  • Detailed information on Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive and its implications for the ongoing conflict can be found on the sponsor's platform, Nebula, offering exclusive content on various global conflicts and crises.
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