AI and Quantum Computing: Glimpsing the Near Future

World Science Festival2 minutes read

Eric Schmidt discusses the importance of scale in computer science, the shift towards rapid assembly of tools by the new generation, and predicts AI enabling instant creation of complex systems. Concerns are raised about the impact of generative AI and social media on democracy, suggesting solutions like watermarking false images, imposing fines for promoting misinformation, and enhancing trust with identity verification on social media platforms.

Insights

  • AI, under the guidance of leading thinkers like Eric Schmidt, is rapidly evolving towards enabling instant creation of complex systems based on verbal commands, potentially revolutionizing productivity and human access to knowledge.
  • Concerns about misinformation, generative AI, and social media's impact on democracy highlight the urgent need for measures like watermarking, identity verification, and government fines to combat misinformation and ensure responsible technology use, emphasizing the critical role of corporate responsibility and public pressure in regulating technology.

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Recent questions

  • What is the impact of AI on human society?

    AI is predicted to revolutionize human society by enabling the instant creation of complex systems based on verbal commands. This shift from professional programming to quick assembly of tools by the new generation, as highlighted by Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO, showcases the rapid construction of complex systems through hackathons. The upcoming ability for any human to have ideas instantly built into reality, along with the concept of a personal polymath assistant, is discussed. The polymath assistant is envisioned as an intimate mental connection for individuals in various fields, potentially transforming human access to knowledge. While AI advancements may double productivity and accelerate certain tasks like protein folding in chemistry and biology, challenges remain in creative leaps in fields like physics. Overall, the impact of AI on human society is expected to be profound, with both positive and negative scenarios in terms of economic implications and societal changes.

  • How can AI benefit various fields?

    AI has the potential to bring significant benefits to various fields such as Medicine, Science, material engineering, batteries, climate change, and drug discovery. The ability of AI to approximate complex systems like clouds effectively due to statistical similarities aids in understanding complex phenomena. AI-driven simulations in drug discovery and synthetic biology showcase the potential for AI to accelerate research processes and suggest novel solutions beyond human capabilities. Startups and companies are working on physical models to understand pressures and forces, particularly in chemistry for calculating valences and adjacencies of molecules. The success of AI models like Alpha Fold in making multiple clever calculations using decision trees highlights the potential for AI to excel in specialized tasks. Overall, AI's impact on various fields is expected to be transformative, potentially leading to breakthroughs in research, development, and problem-solving.

  • How can misinformation be combated on social media?

    Misinformation on social media can be combated through various strategies such as watermarking false images and videos to help verify authenticity. Public key systems offer authentication methods to ensure the credibility of information shared online. Government fines for promoting misinformation and legal liability for social media companies could incentivize responsible behavior. Implementing identity verification on social media platforms can enhance trust and combat misinformation by ensuring the authenticity of users. Age restrictions on social media usage, like raising the minimum age to 16, could protect teenagers from harmful content and misinformation. By establishing guard rails, human feedback mechanisms, and industry collaboration, AI systems can be prevented from engaging in harmful activities, contributing to a safer online environment.

  • What are the challenges in Quantum Computing?

    Quantum Computing advancements are pushing the limits of classical computing, with chip sizes reaching nanometer scales and innovative 3D packaging techniques being developed. While software improvements in training models and memory staging are enhancing computing speed and efficiency, challenges remain in data transfer speeds and practical applications beyond specific areas. Quantum computers show promise in specialized mathematical tasks, but limitations exist in data transfer speeds and practical applications beyond specific areas. The potential for AI-driven simulations in drug discovery and synthetic biology showcases the potential for AI to accelerate research processes and suggest novel solutions beyond human capabilities. Despite the challenges in Quantum Computing, ongoing research and development efforts aim to overcome obstacles and unlock the full potential of this cutting-edge technology.

  • How can education be revolutionized by AI?

    Education could be revolutionized by personalized AI tutors accessible to all, adapting to individual learning styles and abilities, potentially enhancing global education levels significantly. Virtual reality (VR) tools combined with AI tutors could create immersive educational experiences, aiding in better understanding complex concepts and enhancing engagement. The development of an AI tutor accessible to everyone, adapting to individual learning needs and continuously improving its algorithms for better performance, is a proposed goal. Synthetic image-based textbooks, gamified learning, and personalized step-by-step teaching methods could significantly enhance the educational process, making learning more engaging and effective. By leveraging AI technology in education, students can receive personalized support, access interactive learning materials, and enhance their overall learning experience.

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Summary

00:00

"Eric Schmidt on AI, Scale, and Polymath"

  • The conversation is part of a series with leading thinkers in AI, Quantum Computing, and VR.
  • Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO, founded Schmid Futures and the Special Competitive Studies Project.
  • Schmidt discusses the importance of understanding scale in computer science.
  • He highlights the shift from professional programming to quick assembly of tools by the new generation.
  • The emergence of hackathons showcases the rapid construction of complex systems.
  • Schmidt predicts that AI will soon enable instant creation of complex systems based on verbal commands.
  • He emphasizes the upcoming ability for any human to have ideas instantly built into reality.
  • Schmidt mentions Henry Kissinger's upcoming book on the impact of AI on human society.
  • The concept of a personal polymath assistant is discussed, revolutionizing human access to knowledge.
  • The polymath assistant is envisioned as an intimate mental connection for individuals in various fields.

15:14

AI's Impact on Productivity and Economics

  • AI systems are not expected to be perfectly reliable but are anticipated to accelerate productivity.
  • There is a theory that AI will double the productivity of individuals, including software programmers.
  • The economic impact of AI doubling productivity is uncertain, with potential positive and negative scenarios.
  • AI advancements may lead to increased demand and lower prices for intelligence-related services.
  • AI may excel in certain tasks like protein folding in chemistry and biology due to well-structured problems.
  • AI may struggle with creative leaps in fields like physics, where problems are less structured.
  • Large amounts of well-tokenized data are essential for AI benefits, with physics having relatively less data.
  • Physics tools are being adapted for AI use, with physicists guiding computer scientists in problem-solving.
  • The cost of developing advanced AI models can reach up to $250 million, requiring massive data and engineering teams.
  • Open-source AI models face challenges in monetization and competition, particularly in China.

31:01

AI Models: Understanding Forces, Valences, and More

  • Startups and companies are working on physical models to understand pressures and forces, particularly in chemistry for calculating valences and adjacencies of molecules.
  • Language input is followed by a series of reasoning in these models, leading to a segmented process.
  • Alpha Fold's success involved multiple clever calculations using decision trees, not just one LM.
  • Potential benefits of AI in Medicine, Science, material engineering, batteries, climate change, and drug discovery are significant.
  • AI can approximate complex systems like clouds effectively due to statistical similarities, aiding in understanding complex phenomena.
  • Recursive self-improvement and the development of specialized agents within firms are areas of current AI research.
  • Concerns about the speed of AI advancement and the need to understand outcomes and certifications in Control Systems are raised.
  • The ability to verify AI predictions through real-world measurements is crucial for understanding and trusting AI systems.
  • Efforts to extract inner reasoning from AI systems and understand their decision-making processes are ongoing.
  • The evolution of AI systems to potentially surpass human intelligence raises questions about consciousness and the uniqueness of human abilities.

47:02

Risks of Misinformation in Democracy and Technology

  • Math is foundational and there may be intermediate steps leading to temporary plateaus in learning new abilities.
  • Concerns arise about the impact of generative AI and social media on democracy, with fears of misinformation affecting elections globally.
  • Democracy's integrity is at risk due to the influence of generative AI, social media, and charismatic populists.
  • Misinformation and fear-mongering can sway individuals lacking critical thinking skills, potentially undermining democracy.
  • Watermarking false images and videos could help combat misinformation, with public key systems offering authentication.
  • Government fines for promoting misinformation and legal liability could incentivize social media companies to act responsibly.
  • Lack of technical expertise in leadership hinders effective regulation of technology, necessitating corporate responsibility and public pressure.
  • Implementing identity verification on social media platforms could enhance trust and combat misinformation.
  • Age restrictions on social media usage, like raising the minimum age to 16, could protect teenagers from harmful content.
  • Guard rails and human feedback mechanisms can prevent AI systems from engaging in harmful activities, with industry collaboration crucial for safety.

01:02:24

Future of Intelligence and Education: AI Revolution

  • In a scenario where intelligence is highly sought after, the government would establish rules for access, requiring certification and payment, with oversight to prevent misuse.
  • An alternative outcome could involve numerous open-source models leading to a lack of control over intelligence, posing a different world dynamic within a decade.
  • Education could be revolutionized by personalized AI tutors accessible to all, adapting to individual learning styles and abilities, potentially enhancing global education levels significantly.
  • Virtual reality (VR) tools combined with AI tutors could create immersive educational experiences, aiding in better understanding complex concepts and enhancing engagement.
  • A proposed goal is to develop an AI tutor accessible to everyone, adapting to individual learning needs and continuously improving its algorithms for better performance.
  • The potential for synthetic image-based textbooks, gamified learning, and personalized step-by-step teaching methods could significantly enhance the educational process.
  • Quantum Computing advancements are pushing the limits of classical computing, with chip sizes reaching nanometer scales and innovative 3D packaging techniques being developed.
  • Software improvements in training models and memory staging are enhancing computing speed and efficiency, with future chip generations expected to be significantly faster.
  • Quantum computers show promise in specialized mathematical tasks, but challenges remain in data transfer speeds and practical applications beyond specific areas.
  • AI-driven simulations in drug discovery and synthetic biology are showcasing the potential for AI to accelerate research processes and suggest novel solutions beyond human capabilities.

01:18:10

"Innovative Algorithm Creates Cost-Effective Painkiller Halison"

  • Scientists developed an algorithm for an analgesic effect, creating 10 million choices.
  • A second model was built to select the farthest chemically and mathematically from the incumbents, resulting in 10 choices.
  • Chemists selected two choices from the model, ultimately developing a drug called Halison now in trials.
  • The cost of this drug development process was significantly lower than the usual $2 billion for a new drug, potentially saving time and costs in R&D.
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