A visual guide to Bayesian thinking
Julia Galef・11 minutes read
Bas rule is a framework for guiding beliefs, confidence levels, and belief adjustments based on scenarios involving Tom and principles like prior knowledge, questioning assumptions, and updating beliefs incrementally. It is not a definitive solution for all thinking processes.
Insights
- Bas rule utilizes principles like prior knowledge, questioning assumptions, and incremental belief updates to guide decision-making and belief adjustments in response to new information, emphasizing the importance of considering alternative explanations and base rates.
- The mechanics of Bas rule involve visually comparing rectangles representing different scenarios to calculate probabilities, showcasing a practical application of statistical thinking in real-world decision-making processes.
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Recent questions
What is Bas rule?
A framework for guiding beliefs and confidence levels.
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Summary
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Bas Rule: Guiding Beliefs with Evidence
- Bas rule is explained through a scenario involving Tom, where the likelihood of him being in a math PhD program or business school is analyzed based on shyness prevalence and student population ratios.
- The mechanics of Bas rule involve comparing the relative sizes of rectangles representing shy math and business students to determine the probability of Tom being in either program.
- Principle one of Bas rule involves remembering prior knowledge, illustrated by an example of repairmen snooping and the need to consider the base rate of honesty versus robbery.
- Principle two emphasizes questioning one's assumptions, illustrated by a story of suspecting jealousy in a coworker and the importance of considering alternative explanations for observed behavior.
- Principle three advises updating beliefs incrementally based on accumulating evidence, demonstrated through a personal experience with changing views on meditation due to a friend's positive experience.
- Bas rule is presented as a valuable framework for guiding beliefs, confidence levels, and belief adjustments in response to new information, though not a definitive solution for all thinking processes.
